Wagner Group, the Russian private military company (PMC) led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is not only maintaining its presence in Mali but is actively enhancing its capabilities at its Bamako base.

That’s according to an assessment by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Since arriving in Mali in December 2021, the Wagner Group, backed by the Russian military, has established a strong presence near Bamako's Modibo Keita International Airport.

According to the CSIS report, there are concerns that this base is being expanded, raising the possibility that Wagner may soon move valuable military equipment to the West African country, following its exit from Ukraine.

Over the past 18 months, the PMC has significantly expanded its base by constructing new buildings and extending its southern perimeter. The creation of a sizeable fortified storage space suggests intentions to house military equipment.

Recent developments also indicate a sustained commitment to the area. A Turkish company is constructing a new airport terminal, expected to be finished by March 2024, but there's no definite proof connecting this project to Wagner's actions.

Furthermore, the Wagner base, located close to an SA-3 Goa missile base, has visibly grown larger, separate from the presence of private military contractors.

To counter Wagner's activities in Africa, policymakers should pay attention to small hints of security problems or inefficiency, rather than waiting for big changes within the PMC or Russia as the geopolitical situation changes, CSIS says.

“The ongoing construction is significant because it not only shows that base operations continued uninterrupted after Prigozhin’s mutiny in June, but also demonstrates Wagner’s sustained intention to expand its operations out of Bamako,” the report notes.

“This contradicts a flurry of rumours alleging that Wagner may be forced to draw down its forces in Africa but is in line with Prigozhin’s remarks in a recent video released by Wagner-linked channels online, in which he promised that Wagner would refocus its attention on Africa.”

Apart from Mali, the West African states of Burkina Faso, Guinea and most recently Niger are also run by juntas.