The big gamble Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took when he ordered the Kursk incursion on August 4 is starting to unravel.

“President Zelenskiy has come under a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts in recent days over the rapid advances made by the Russian army in eastern Ukraine since Kyiv launched its bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region,” reported Christopher Miller of the Financial Times on August 30.

Zelenskiy is grappling with rapidly mounting criticism from his military personnel, lawmakers and analysts as the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) largely ignore the first invasion of Russian territory since the Chinese occupied Zhen-bao (or Damansky) Island on the Ussuri river in March 1969, which happened more recently than Hitler's invasion of 1941.

As Russia continues its push in Donbas, undeterred by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian military leaders are under intense pressure to stabilise the situation. And that is not going well.

Military commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week that Russia has brought up 30,000 men to contain the Kursk incursion, but admitted that Russia had not drawn them from the Donbas frontline, where its forces’ progress is accelerating, according to reports by the military bloggers (milbloggers) on both sides.

“Russia has brought up 30,000 troops to Kursk that have not come [to] Donbas, but [have been] scratched together from other units elsewhere as well as what reserves Russia has left,” Syrskyi noted.

The Russian forces in Kursk are facing off with an estimated 7,000-20,000 crack Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) troops, according to various sources. However, as reported by bne IntelliNews, Russia seems to be in no rush to take the region back while it concentrates all its efforts on making a strategically important breakthrough in the Donbas.

If the plan was to draw off forces from the Donbas to relieve the pressure on the AFU in Donbas, it has failed. Mounting reports suggest that the key town of Pokrovsk is about to fall into Russian hands. The irony is that instead of weakening Russia’s forces in Donbas, it is becoming increasingly clear that it is Ukraine that has weakened its force on the main battleline in the Donbas and the AFU forces in the line of fire are increasingly unhappy about it.

“A breach in the front line in the strategic Donetsk region has triggered a backlash against the political and military leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of experienced troops to the Kursk operation,” Miller added.

Pokrovsk is a critical rail and road junction in Donetsk. Russian forces have advanced to within 8 km of Pokrovsk, reports Euromaidan Press, capturing nearby towns and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from their defensive positions. The potential fall of Pokrovsk could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s military logistics in the region.

As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, concerns are growing about Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defence against the AFR’s onslaught. According to Roman Pohorilyi, a milblogger on Ukraine’s DeepState Telegram channel, the situation near Pokrovsk is deteriorating rapidly. “There is complete chaos,” Pohorilyi said in a post earlier this week, highlighting that the fall of key towns on the approach to Pokrovsk like Novohrodivka are a looming threat to Pokrovsk. “There is very bad now.”

During a press conference on August 28, Zelenskiy acknowledged the situation is “difficult” but claimed that the Russian advance had slowed due to Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk. However, reports from the ground suggest otherwise. “In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly there since August 6,” noted Miller.

Satellite imagery of seized Ukrainian positions shows signs of heavy artillery shelling, which indicates that Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk area retreated multiple times due to insufficient forces and resources for an organised defence.

The Finnish OSINT group Black Bird has mapped Ukrainian defences visible through satellite imagery, which shows Russian forces have moved beyond several defensive positions, and with the full control of Novohrodivka, only one defensive line remains before reaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk itself, Euromaidan Press reports.

“The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses a serious operational threat to the logistics of the entire region, disrupting supply lines from Vuhledar in the south to Horlivka in the north,” Euromaidan Press reports.

The strategic importance of Pokrovsk is further compounded by its location near key road junctures, making it a crucial distribution hub for Ukrainian forces. The road linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, long targeted by Russian forces, is vital for the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector that supports the defence of the front line. Losing this connection could severely impair Ukraine’s ability to defend the region.

Moreover, the political implications are significant. Pokrovsk lies just over 20 km from the Dnipro Oblast border, and with Russia’s re-entry into Kharkiv Oblast in May this year, there is growing concern that the Russian offensive may not stop at the Donetsk and Luhansk borders – Putin’s stated war goal.

Russia regained the initiative after the fall of Avdiivka on February 17 and solidified it during a devastating six-month hiatus in Western support after the US ran out of money for Ukraine, only to finally approve a new $61bn aid package on April 20. However, since then fresh supplies have been only dribbling into Ukraine at a reduced pace, Zelenskiy complained this week. Despite the fresh international support approved in recent months, the West has continued its policy of supplying Ukraine with “some, but not enough” aid that is designed to prevent Ukraine from not losing the war, but not supplying it with enough to win.

An example of the perils of this half-hearted support appeared this week after the first of the six F-16s fighter jets was shot down during the massive missile barrage on August 26. Zelenskiy has been asking for jet planes since the first week of the war and says that the AFU needs 120, but so far has only received half a dozen of the total 80 promised by European allies. With so few planes at its disposal, the AFU does not dare send them into direct combat against Russia’s fleet of over 350 advanced fighter jets.

After taking Avdiivka on February 17, Russia has consolidated its hold on the town and the lack of Ukrainian fortifications behind Avdiivka has left Ukrainian defences vulnerable, say experts. The rapid pace of Russian advancement since July has allowed them to bypass many of Ukraine’s hastily constructed defensive lines, belatedly thrown up after the front line began to crumble this spring.

While Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions, the shortage of manpower and resources is becoming increasingly apparent. As detailed by bne IntelliNews, Ukraine is suffering from growing shortages of men, money and materiel, and while a recruitment drive launched following a new mobilisation law passed in March has raised more troops, Kyiv is still struggling to equip and train them according to a damning AP interview, where a senior Ukrainian officer described the poor state of readiness and morale amongst the fresh recruits.

“Regardless of how well-constructed the defences are, if they are staffed at only 10-20% of capacity, they likely will be lost,” warned Euromaidan Press.

As the conflict intensifies, the fate of Pokrovsk and the broader Donbas region hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will be critical as Ukraine navigates the dual challenges of repelling Russian advances while maintaining its strategic foothold in eastern Ukraine.