Bulgaria’s parliament on July 3 rejected the government nominated by the Gerb party, with all MPs, except for those from Gerb and two thirds of the members of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), voting against it.

Gerb’s leader Boyko Borissov said the party would propose a minority government as, apart from the DPS, no other party had agreed to participate in a ruling coalition. The party nominated ex-parliament speaker Rossen Zhelyazkov for prime minister and included seven of the current caretaker ministers in the proposed government.

On July 3, just 98 MPs, including the 68 members of Gerb and 30 from the DPS, supported Zhelyazkov’s government. One DPS MP abstained and all other lawmakers voted against.

After the failure of the first mandate to form a government, President Rumen Radev will give the second out of three mandates to the DPS, the second-largest party in the parliament. However, the chances of success are slim as currently no other formation would agree to back the DPS, led by Magnitsky-sanctioned Delyan Peevski.

There is a chance for a government with the third mandate, but it is still unclear which party Radev will pick. Reformist pro-Western Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) has said it would neither seek nor try to fulfil a mandate within this parliament as it has no natural allies.

Apart from CC-DB, in parliament there are three pro-Russian parties – Vazrazhdane, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and Greatness – as well as the populist There Are Such People (ITN). The four are willing to join forces if given the third mandate but would not have sufficient MPs unless they are backed by Gerb or the DPS.

Rift in DPS may reshuffle positions in parliament

Meanwhile, the situation in the highly fragmented parliament has become increasingly unstable. The past few days revealed a conflict between Peevski and the DPS’ chairman of honour Ahmed Dogan. This was confirmed earlier on July 3 by the long-standing DPS member Ramadan Atalai who said in an interview with bTV that there was a rift between the two politicians – until then always working together – and that Dogan had advised DPS MPs not to back Gerb’s government.

A few hours later, Atalai was excluded by Peevski from the DPS parliamentary group but refused to resign as an MP. He joined his colleague Aisel Rufad, who was excluded by Peevski several days earlier and remained in parliament as independent MP.

Atalai, one of the DPS members closest to Dogan, accused Peevski of using the party as his own company and firing party members without informing Dogan.

Until now, Dogan was believed to be the most powerful politician in Bulgaria. He chose Peevski as the party’s co-leader, along with Dzhevdet Chakarov. However, after June 9 Peevski has been actively removing those politicians who are most loyal to Dogan, and Atalai said the relationship between them is in disarray.

On July 3, Dogan’s advice to DPS MPs not to back Gerb’s government was followed by just one third of the lawmakers, showing the current balance of power between him and Peevski. After the vote, Peevski indicated that the 15 MPs who did not obey his instructions will be removed.

If that happens in the coming few days, the DPS will become the third largest party in parliament, and Radev will have to give the second mandate to CC-DB. Theoretically, Gerb, CC-DB and the DPS’ MPs who were against Dogan will have a majority in parliament and could reach an agreement on a coalition.

However, chances are slim for CC-DB to once again agree to work together with Gerb. In the previous parliament, the two formations agreed on a rotational government, led for nine months by CC’s Nikolai Denkov and then for another nine months by Gerb’s Mariya Gabriel. However, Gerb did not fulfil its part of the agreement and provoked the June 9 snap vote, hoping to get more MPs and enough support for a government in coalition with the DPS.