US political consultant George Birnbaum, who has worked on campaigns for populist strongmen such as Hungary's Viktor Orban and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, is to conduct surveys around the snap presidential election to be be held on 7 February 2024.

At a press conference of the Oracle Advisory Group, an organisation based in the U.S. for which he works, Birnbaum said:   "We will be monitoring the election in 40 regions of Azerbaijan. Our main focus will be conducting a survey that covers a variety of topics such as the country’s economic situation, security, and achievements in Karabakh."  Birnbaum added:   "We will be carrying out surveys at 500 polling stations throughout the country with a team of 25 observers. We will compile internal reports every three hours throughout the day. The results of the pre-election poll will be announced next week," he stated.

Vlada Galan, another representative of the Oracle Advisory Group, said that the organisation has observed election processes in numerous countries, including the U.S., Hungary, Romania, Israel, and the Czech Republic. She mentioned that the imminent election in Azerbaijan would be the 25th global election observed by the organisation, and it would mark the 5th time the organisation has observed an election in Azerbaijan.

Birnbaum's role in Azerbaijan is not his first in the region. He has been involved in previous elections, including the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2018 presidential elections, where he was instrumental in conducting exit polls and pre-exit surveys. His surveys often "showed" strong support for the ruling party of New Azerbaijan Party and leader Ilham Aliyev, echoing the government's narrative of stability and progress. 

Birnbaum's connection to Azerbaijan goes beyond electoral politics. In 2017, he was involved in a diplomatic and cultural initiative, leading a group of children from the Atlanta Jewish Academy on a visit to Azerbaijan. The trip aimed to showcase Azerbaijan as a model of religious tolerance and pluralism, a narrative significantly the Azerbaijani government often tries to sell to the West.

This pattern aligns with Birnbaum's history of working with influential right-wing figures, including Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, where he employed tactics focusing on polarization and targeting perceived enemies, a method he discussed openly in a BBC interview. 

He is best known for his work with Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates, a firm that has significantly influenced the rise of right-wing populism globally. Birnbaum's mentor, the late Arthur Finkelstein, was a master strategist known for shaping the political landscape in favour of conservative and right-wing leaders, starting from Richard Nixon. Together, they have worked on campaigns for notable figures such as Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and Viktor Orbán in Hungary.

Birnbaum's involvement with Orbán's government is particularly noteworthy. He played a crucial role in Orbán's propaganda machine, which included demonising liberal philanthropist George Soros. Birnbaum and Finkelstein's strategy focused on creating a perceived enemy, in this case, Soros, to rally public support around Orbán's policies. This tactic of polarisation and targeting specific individuals or groups has been a hallmark of Birnbaum's approach to political campaigning.

In the aforementioned BBC interview, Birnbaum discussed the importance of having an "enemy" in political campaigns, a philosophy that has been evident in his work. This strategy was successfully employed in Netanyahu's campaign in Israel, where divisive issues were brought to the forefront to galvanise support. Similarly, in Hungary, Birnbaum and Finkelstein identified Soros as a target, contributing to the spread of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and influencing public opinion against him.

Birnbaum's methods, while effective in achieving political victories, have raised concerns about their impact on democratic values and social cohesion. His focus on polarisation and exploiting societal divisions has been criticised for deepening political divides and fostering an environment of hostility and mistrust.

The intriguing involvement of George Birnbaum, with his storied background in political strategy and lobbying, in Azerbaijan's political processes raises an essential question: Is his expertise even necessary in the current Azerbaijani political landscape? The Aliyev family petrostate once prematurely published election results before the voting had even commenced.

Since the 2020 Karabakh War victory over Armenia, President Ilham Aliyev has notably stepped out of the shadow of his father, Heydar Aliyev, consolidating his own authority and political legacy. This victory not only bolstered national pride but also significantly strengthened Aliyev's grip on power. The triumph in the conflict, long-standing and deeply emotional for Azerbaijanis, gave Aliyev an unprecedented level of public support and legitimacy, which he hopes to exploit by calling the snap election.

Moreover, Aliyev's administration has strategically enacted laws that further restrict media freedoms and tighten controls over political parties. These moves have effectively stifled critical voices and opposition, making Aliyev an unchallengeable figure in the Azerbaijani political arena. In such a context, the need for a political strategist of Birnbaum's calibre, known for his expertise in navigating more competitive and complex political environments, seems questionable.