The European Union's latest enlargement package, issued by the European Commission on October 30, highlights progress made on EU enlargement by several of the candidate countries, in an increasingly tense geopolitical environment. 

Russia’s war in Ukraine — a country neighbouring several EU members — focussed the attention of EU leaders on the countries to the south and east of the bloc, giving fresh impetus to expand the union after years during which progress on enlargement was sluggish. 

“The tense geopolitical context makes it more compelling than ever that we complete the reunification of our continent, under the same values of democracy and the rule of law,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the release of the reports. 

“We have already taken great strides over the last years towards integrating new member states. And enlargement will remain a top priority of the new Commission,” she added. 

The reports were issued towards the end of a year that has seen some notable advances in the EU enlargement process. Following a December 2023 decision by the European Council to initiate accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, the two countries held their first intergovernmental negotiations on June 25. The European Commission has since been conducting bilateral screenings with both countries, assessing their alignment with EU standards across key policy areas.

The package also documents progress for aspiring members from the Western Balkans. Montenegro, for instance, met its interim benchmarks for the rule of law chapters in June, moving closer to closing some negotiation chapters, while North Macedonia and Albania concluded their screening sessions by late 2023. Albania's accession negotiations advanced further this month, with the opening of the fundamentals cluster. Bosnia & Herzegovina received approval to begin formal accession negotiations in March, with the European Commission instructed to draft a negotiating framework once the country completes specific reforms outlined in an October 2022 recommendation.

At the same time, however, the reports pointed to the continued need for reforms in multiple countries on issues such as the rule of law and fighting corruption. Serbia, which has resisted imposing sanctions on Russia, was also urged to align its foreign policy with that of the EU. The report on North Macedonia stressed the need for Skopje to adopt constitutional reforms required for the country to start opening its first accession chapters. 

The report on Georgia — coming just days after a general election that has been widely criticised by EU leaders —raised a number of concerns regarding Georgia’s EU aspirations.Georgia’s “course of action since spring 2024 jeopardises [its] EU path”, effectively halting its progress toward accession, said the report.

Important for Europe 

The reports outline the progress made by 10 candidate and potential candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. 

Two decades after the EU’s historic 2004 expansion, which saw 10 countries join its ranks, the report stressed the importance of enlargement for stability and prosperity across Europe.  According to the European Commission: "EU accession remains a key driver of long-term security, peace, stability and prosperity in Europe”, promoting shared values such as democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights, while fueling economic growth.

Recent crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, according to the report, confirm the importance of cooperation and the geopolitical influence of EU enlargement, especially as countries from Eastern Europe look to the EU for stability and support. 

The European Commission added that the three recent membership applications from the EU’s eastern neighbours testify to the “geopolitical weight of EU enlargement” as countries seek shelter within the bloc's political and economic framework.

EU High Representative Josep Borrell framed enlargement as a strategic imperative in light of escalating geopolitical pressures, arguing that EU alignment is not merely a political choice but also a necessity. “The current geopolitical context is more challenging than ever. EU membership is a strategic choice,” Borrell tweeted. 

Mixed progress 

The European Commission commended Montenegro’s EU accession progress in its October 30 report, urging Podgorica to build on recent reforms. The government has made strides in key areas, especially in judiciary reform, and, though challenges remain. Meeting interim benchmarks in June for chapters 23 and 24 allowed Montenegro to advance in talks, with further chapters now open to provisional closure. A potential accession date of 2028 is currently being discussed. However, judicial appointments, particularly in the Supreme Court, and solid anti-corruption efforts are needed. Montenegro has improved in combating organised crime, migration, and asylum management but must strengthen law enforcement and economic resilience amid high public financing needs, the report said.

The European Commission noted Serbia’s moderate progress in its EU accession over the last year, with advances in four of 33 negotiating chapters. It urged Serbia to accelerate reforms in rule of law and foreign policy alignment. The Commission recommended opening cluster 3, covering competitiveness and inclusive growth, bringing Serbia's opened chapters to 22 of 35. Key areas, including market competition and financial oversight, saw no progress, though statistical capabilities improved. The EU reiterated Serbia’s need to align with EU sanctions on Russia, a contentious issue given Serbia's historical ties with Moscow. Media freedom and election processes also require reforms.

Albania has taken recent strides toward EU membership, including its October opening of negotiations on the fundamentals chapter. Since Albania's first intergovernmental conference in 2022, it has committed to implementing the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA). Yet, further reforms are necessary in the rule of law, anti-corruption, and protecting fundamental rights. Despite the government’s recent corruption amnesty raising concerns, Albania has progressed in anti-money laundering, exiting the FATF “grey list” in October 2023.

North Macedonia must maintain its EU-related reform efforts, particularly in the judiciary, anti-corruption, and organised crime, according to the European Commission’s progress report. Trust in the justice system is essential as North Macedonia advances in its EU accession journey. The Commission highlighted the need to pass constitutional amendments promised by the previous government — a step delayed since July 2022 due to Sofia’s demands over the recognition of North Macedonia’s ethnic Bulgarian minority. Responding to the report, Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski stressed the new government’s commitment to reforms as part of a broader European transformation, calling for collaboration across sectors to ensure a better future for all. 

Political disagreements have stalled reform efforts in Bosnia, despite the country’s pledge to meet the requirements to begin EU accession talks. The European Commission urged Bosnia to accelerate reforms aligned with EU standards, noting that these efforts are essential to access EU funding. Bosnia is the only Western Balkan country yet to complete its reform agenda. The report pointed tod ongoing issues in the judiciary, electoral discrimination, and corruption, especially in Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska. Concerns also include restricted media freedom, journalist harassment, and defamation penalties impacting free expression in Republika Srpska.

The European Commission urged Kosovo to enhance efforts in rule of law, public administration, and freedom of expression. Positive developments include progress in tackling organised crime, an improved business environment, and visa liberalisation for Kosovo citizens effective from January 1. The EU-Kosovo SAA has been active since 2016, with Kosovo applying for EU membership in December 2022. The report stressed the need for Kosovo and Serbia to meet obligations under the normalisation agreement, including forming the Community of Serb Majority Municipalities. Tensions in northern Kosovo, however, remained high. Meanwhile, as five EU member states do not recognise Kosovo, the country has been unable to secure candidate status. 

Following Ukraine’s initial Intergovernmental Conference on EU accession, the Commission initiated bilateral screening on July 8, building on prior explanatory meetings. Progress has been smooth, with Ukraine maintaining a democratic election framework and implementing key OSCE/ODIHR recommendations, the report said. Despite wartime challenges, Ukraine’s public administration and digital services remain resilient, showing moderate preparedness in areas like judicial reform, anti-corruption efforts, and media freedom. Progress in justice, freedom, and security includes anti-smuggling and financial investigation laws. Economic reforms and International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed programmes have aided Ukraine’s market economy, yet ongoing conflict impacts public finances and infrastructure, limiting competitiveness within the EU market.

The European Commission’s report on Moldova’s EU accession readiness highlights progress in key areas of judiciary reform, anti-corruption efforts and public administration, as well as political support for Moldova’s pro-EU authorities. Following June’s intergovernmental conference, the accession screening is progressing well, and the Commission recommends that the Council initiate negotiations on the fundamentals cluster in 2025, contingent upon Moldova meeting conditions. Challenges remain, particularly in the economic cluster and in securing broader public support for EU accession. The report’s release comes shortly before the second round of Moldova's key presidential election, which pits pro-EU President Maia Sandu, one of the main drivers behind Moldova’s recent accession progress, against Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the moderate pro-Russian Socialist Party. 

The report on Georgia was the most eagerly awaited, coming just days after the country’s controversial general election that delivered yet another victory for Georgian Dream. In December 2023, the European Council granted Georgia candidate status for EU accession, but the process has effectively stalled following actions by the Georgian government since spring 2024. After the parliamentary election, the OSCE/ODIHR-led International Election Observation Mission found significant issues in a polarised environment, including legislative changes, threats to vote secrecy, procedural inconsistencies, and voter intimidation. These flaws underscore the need for substantial electoral reform. The European Commission also criticised laws adopted by Tbilisi echoing Russia's “foreign agent” law and anti-LGBT measures. EU officials warn that further steps toward accession hinge on Georgia addressing key reforms and reversing its current course.

European Union accession negotiations with Turkey remain stalled since 2018, as pointed out in the latest annual annual enlargement package. This frozen status aligns with a European Council decision reflecting ongoing concerns about Turkey's fundamental rights and rule of law, including judicial independence. Despite this, the Commission noted that dialogue on these issues is crucial to EU-Turkey relations, which saw gradual re-engagement following the April 2024 European Council guidance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently argued that Turkey's strengthening ties with BRICS do not conflict with its EU ambitions, maintaining its status as a Nato ally.