Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s opposition to Ukraine joining the European Union is intensifying, bolstered by US President Donald Trump, who has upended Western support for Kyiv by seeking closer ties with Moscow amid increasingly warm relations.

At the same time, the Trump administration is clearly losing patience with the slow pace of ceasefire negotiations and has now turned its attention to the EU to try to bully it into making concessions to get a deal through. Trump has threatened to abandon the peace talks effort “in days” if no agreement is reached by the end of April.

Since being granted candidate status, Ukraine has made surprisingly swift progress in passing the legislation and implementing the reforms required for EU accession, formally launching membership negotiations in June 2024.

Orbán, a nationalist and Moscow’s closest ally within the EU, has consistently opposed Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc. However, the European Commission has managed to keep him in check through a mixture of incentives and penalties – offering sanctions exemptions while withholding EU funds and subsidies.

He was even persuaded to take a coffee break during the decisive vote on Ukraine’s candidacy status, a bureaucratic manoeuvre that enabled the approval to proceed despite only 26 member states voting in favour, falling short of the unanimity technically required in December 2023.

Yet bne IntelliNews reports that such ad hoc solutions are nearing their limits. The EC is now actively seeking ways to sidestep Hungary’s de facto veto on the six-month renewal of sanctions against Russia, due for a vote in July.

“Ukraine cannot win this war. And membership of the European Union cannot be an instrument of war,” Orbán recently stated.

Next week, his government intends to distribute ballots inviting Hungarians to express support or opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership. Though the referendum is non-binding, it mirrors previous votes Orbán has used to legitimise his eurosceptic positions.

Historically, Orbán has shown a willingness to negotiate EU decisions on Ukraine in Hungary’s favour. However, diplomats now fear he may refuse to compromise, potentially blocking critical legislation concerning Ukraine’s funding, its accession bid and the renewal of sanctions against Russia.

“We’re at a standstill,” said one European diplomat, speaking anonymously to AFP. “We’re really stuck,” added another, describing Hungary’s stance as “political blackmail” orchestrated by “the apparatchiks in Moscow”.

Pressure on Europe to assume greater responsibility for supporting Kyiv has been mounting, and Brussels may soon have no choice but to take the lead.

On April 18, Trump stated that the United States would “take a pass” on further mediation efforts unless Moscow and Kyiv reached a deal promptly.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the warning a day earlier in Paris, saying Washington would “move on” if a truce did not appear “doable” within days.

“Yes, very shortly,” Trump told reporters when asked to confirm Rubio’s statement. “No specific number of days, but quickly. We want to get it done,” AFP reported.

“If, for some reason, one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say: ‘You’re foolish. You’re fools. You’re horrible people’ – and we’re going to just take a pass,” Trump added. “But hopefully we won’t have to do that.” Rubio outlined the US plan during a meeting in Paris on April 17 with representatives from the UK, US, Ukraine and France. The proposal includes Ukraine making territorial concessions and the EU agreeing to lift certain sanctions on Russia. He implicitly threatened Brussels by suggesting that, without swift agreement, Washington would hand responsibility for the Ukraine issue over to Europe.

In a statement, the State Department said Rubio issued the same warning to Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte in a phone call on April 18, telling him that "if a clear path to peace does not emerge soon, the United States will step back from efforts to broker peace."  

French President Emmanuel Macron met with Rubio and US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff in Paris. According to the Élysée Palace, the talks were constructive and brought parties closer on resolving the conflict. Rubio and Witkoff also met French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, German Chancellor’s Foreign Policy Adviser Jens Plötner and the Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, Andriy Yermak.

A follow-up meeting of these five nations is scheduled for next week in London, AFP reported.

During the recent 30-day ceasefire agreement and the new Black Sea grain deal of March 25, Trump appeared to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for sanctions relief. However, the White House lacks the authority to lift sanctions unilaterally and must persuade Brussels to act in parallel – something the EC refuses to consider unless hostilities cease and Russian forces fully withdraw from Ukraine.

Frustrated by the impasse, the Trump administration now appears to be putting pressure on Brussels to align with its softer stance on sanctions. Witkoff has also suggested that Russia be allowed to retain control over the five regions it has annexed – an idea President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has categorically rejected, calling it a “red line” for Bankova, the Ukrainian presidential administration.