Iraq's first national census since 1997, begun on November 20, has rekindled ethnic tensions across the fractured country, as Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen groups demand the count be suspended over allegations of demographic manipulation.

The census, ordered by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's Baghdad government, aims to provide a clear picture of Iraq's population distribution after years of war, invasion and occupation by the US and so-called Islamic State, particularly in the north of the country. However, the process has become entangled in long-standing ethnic disputes in places like Kirkuk, where Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and other minorities have competing claims.

In the disputed oil-rich city of Kirkuk, the Arab Alliance and the Iraqi Turkmen Front coalition reported an influx of Kurdish families from Kurdistan Region cities arriving in Kirkuk before the census, prompting calls for the government to halt the count. They argue these families are not original Kirkuk residents, and their inclusion would artificially alter the city's demographics.

"We monitored dozens of Kurdish families flowing from the Kurdistan region into Kirkuk to register in the general census," Nazim Al-Shammari, Secretary-General of the Arab Opinion Commission in Kirkuk, told Al-Mashhad. "Hundreds of families remain at Kirkuk's entry points after registering, waiting to return to their cities in the region."

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) strongly rejected these allegations, stating in a response that such accusations reflect "the mentality of the former Iraqi regime that destroyed 753 Kurdish villages in Kirkuk."

Kurdish officials argue that returning residents are among the 180,000 who fled Kirkuk in October 2017 when Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered the city.

Kifah Mahmoud, advisor to former President Masoud Barzani, defended the Kurdish returns, stating that the census relies on official Iraqi documents, including citizenship papers, civil status cards, ration cards and national ID cards.

"All these official documents prove that those who entered the city before the census are Kirkuk natives who were displaced multiple times," he said.

The central government has attempted to defuse tensions by excluding ethnic and sectarian identification from census forms.

Prime Minister al-Sudani said that the count is purely for developmental purposes, focusing on economic indicators rather than ethnic composition, and ordered a lockdown across the country while the census was being carried out.

"The general census is not political but focuses on economic and developmental aspects, youth sector, unemployment and living standards," Mahmoud explained. However, he noted that disputed areas, including Kirkuk, Sinjar, Khanaqin and the Nineveh Plains, would eventually be subject to Article 140 of the constitution, which calls for normalisation followed by a referendum.

Census teams have reportedly avoided questions about ethnicity or sect, instead focusing on family size, housing, mobile phone usage, car ownership and other economic indicators. The government declared a two-day holiday to facilitate the count and decided that citizens in disputed areas should register based on their original locations rather than current residences.

Iraq's national census also hit a significant obstacle in Basra Province after more than 150 surveyors abandoned their posts in Al-Zubair district, leaving entire areas uncounted despite a two-day nationwide curfew, local officials reported on November 22.

The mass withdrawal of census workers has left large gaps in the count across Al-Zubair, Abu Al-Khaseeb and Shatt Al-Arab districts, as well as central Basra, the local government revealed, Shafaq reported.

In Iraq’s capital, the census results show Baghdad's population has swollen to approximately 10mn people, marking a dramatic increase from the 4.5mn recorded in 1997. The capital's growth reflects decades of rural-to-urban migration and internal displacement that have transformed the city from a population of just 250,000 at the start of the 20th century.

"The capital has experienced unnatural population growth, largely due to internal migration in search of jobs and services," former Baghdad Mayor Alaa Al-Tamimi told Independent Arabia. "This migration wasn't supported by proper urban planning policies, creating immense pressure on housing, water and sewage services."

The much-delayed census dispute highlights Iraq's complex demographic history. The Saddam Hussein-era 1997 census showed Kirkuk as 72% Arab, 21% Kurdish and 7% Turkmen, though these figures were contested after alleged demographic engineering under the former regime. But after years of war and displacement, the updated figure in that city alone is now expected to be much different. 

Political analyst Mohammed Zangana said that many families living in Kurdistan from areas governed by Article 140 were granted leave from work to return for registration, similar to practices in other provinces.

"There was government facilitation for these families' movement, and they all possess their official documents," he said on social media platform X.

The census results, although not including ethnic identification, could influence future political arrangements in disputed territories. Article 140 of Iraq's constitution, which remains unimplemented, calls for the normalisation of these areas, followed by a census and referendum to determine their status.

It is now a wait and see game with the results of the census, with data expected to be released in the coming months, citizens and those on temporary residence who are included in the count may find some interesting changes since the previous Saddam-era census.

The exclusion of understanding peoples ethnicity has not cooled nerves across the country, who are naturally wary of the central government in Baghdad.

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