Speaking to bne IntelliNews at the AmCham Ukraine headquarters in Kyiv, its president, Andy Hunder, is keen to stress that after three years of war, business in Ukraine has fully adapted to the war and is thriving. 

“I was speaking to a general manager the other day, and you ask, how's business? And he goes, Andy, I'm embarrassed to say it, but business is good and well.”

Hunder has just got back from a trip to Taiwan. “They have a big northern neighbour who doesn't believe in the existence of their country and they want to be ready. AmCham Taiwan invited me over to tell them how to run a business during a war. It’s not something you get on MBA courses.”

AmCham Ukraine has over 600 member companies, ranging from small businesses to large multinational corporations, collectively representing billions of dollars in investment in the Ukrainian economy.

One major multinational that has continued to invest in Ukraine during the war is Mcdonald’s. The company reopened its restaurants seven months into the war and has since opened a further twenty new restaurants across the country. 

“Last Monday I had breakfast at Mcdonald’s because they’ve just relaunched their breakfast menu,” said Hunder. This despite the fact that every time an air raid siren sounds the whole restaurant has to close and the staff proceed to the nearest air raid shelter. “And they've mastered it, I think they've got it down to five minutes,” said Hunder. 

It’s not just the Golden Arches that have continued operations during the war. Hunder listed the major multinationals that have a presence in the country: “PepsiCo have three factories here. Carlsberg has three breweries. Nestle have three plants and are pumping in another $40m for a new factory in Volyn. Boeing has 1,300 employees here in Kyiv.”

The war has also produced some unusual trends. Hunder recently visited Canpack, an aluminium can producer that has seen demand rocket: “They’re at total capacity. Why? Because during war, demand for glass bottles goes down and the demand for cans goes up."

Another major wartime success story has been the resilience of Ukraine’s IT infrastructure. In the early days of the war the government allowed companies to move their data centres to locations outside Ukraine. 

“If during World War II the safest place for critical infrastructure was underground in the tunnels, today the safest place for critical infrastructure is up in the Cloud. And today the internet works better in wartime Kyiv than it does in many cities across Europe. The banking sector works seamlessly.”

Labour shortages

But the war is of course still a major drag on Ukraine’s economy. “The number one issue today is people,” says Hunder. 

Almost 7mn Ukrainians have left the country since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to UN figures, leaving critical shortages in many of the sectors most pressing for Ukraine’s eventual reconstruction. 

The problem has been compounded as Ukraine’s armed forces have struggled to make up manpower shortages with a new recruitment drive. Around 1.2mn Ukrainians are serving in the armed forces. A further 800,000 men have gone into hiding to avoid conscription, according to the Financial Times.

Hunder recently had a meeting with Work.ua, one of Ukraine’s top online recruitment platforms: “They have almost a hundred thousand vacancies online today. So it is forklift drivers, blue collar, white collar – the majority of companies have vacancies.”

Companies are able to protect some of their workforce from enlistment if they satisfy certain salary and tax criteria under new criteria introduced by the Ministry of Economy in November last year. This has left managers with the unenviable task of deciding which of their employees to reserve as critical staff, and which to leave vulnerable to the possibility of being mobilised. 

“I've had general managers coming to me saying that they didn't sleep for a couple of nights because this was probably the most difficult decision they've had to make in their professional career,” says Hunder. 

AmCham Ukraine is, however, planning for the end of the war. In a survey conducted in December 2024, 77.8% of the organisation’s members predicted that there would be a ceasefire this year. Last week, Hunder launched a new initiative with the Ministry of Veterans preparing for veteran reintegration. 

“We don’t know the exact numbers but we think the first wave of demobilisation potentially could see 700,000 men and women, but mostly men, come back. [The question is] how do you keep these people economically active? Some of these men have phenomenal leadership skills, and we want to bring them back into a work environment and get them doing what they’re really good at,’ says Hunder. 

Peace and reconstruction

Hunder is keeping a close eye on the progress of peace talks, although he admits that it can be difficult keeping up with the messaging from President Trump’s administration: “We go to bed at night with explosions of drones, and we wake up in the morning with explosions on social media,” he says. 

Regardless, he is optimistic about the appetite of international companies to take part in Ukraine’s reconstruction: “Companies that have done business here, that are doing business here, but also companies that haven't done business in Ukraine before are watching very closely. In every sector from A to Z, Ukrainians have shown what they can do during a full-scale war. There’s excitement that [reconstruction] is possible.”

Successful reconstruction will depend on making sure Ukraine has cheap and easy access to the necessary materials. “We had an interesting meeting last week with one of the biggest cement producers and things like cement should be pretty much covered,” says Hunder. 

There are still gaps, however. “There's not a single large panel glass manufacturer. So we're really looking at that – how long will it take to build a factory? We're looking at least a good couple of years.”

Hunder points out of the AmCham’s 15th floor offices to the Kyiv Toronto office complex opposite: “We had a missile hit there on the Friday before Christmas. It's an office centre with very large windows. The windows are going in but they’re imported, and it takes time to import them.”

Looking beyond the immediate challenges, Hunder sees Ukraine's future economic development following a familiar regional pattern: "EU accession is on track. [Investors] look at Poland and what Poland has done over the last 20 years and there’s a belief that that can be replicated here.”

Ultimately, the success or failure of Ukraine’s reconstruction will depend on whether consensus emerges that the opportunities outweigh the risks. Hunder’s message is that investors would be foolish to miss out: “This is the biggest recovery of a nation in Europe since World War II. It's risky to invest in Ukraine now, but it's more risky not to invest.”