The ambitious Dos Bocas refinery project in Mexico, once hailed as a symbol of energy independence under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), is now facing severe setbacks that threaten its future. Originally conceived as the country's largest and most modern oil refinery, the project, led by state oil company Pemex, was meant to reduce Mexico's reliance on imported fuels. However, over five years after its launch, the refinery remains unfinished and over budget, and is now costing more than $20bn – more than double the initial estimate.

The decision to use outdated designs from a previously scrapped project has been one of the key factors behind the delays and complications. Despite claims that this approach would save taxpayers money, the refinery's construction has been plagued by numerous issues. "Design flaws, poor planning and a lack of modern technology have all contributed to the ongoing troubles," said Bernardo Del Castillo, an energy consultant. The facility, located in the humid Dos Bocas port, also suffers from inadequate equipment for its lower-altitude environment, further complicating operations.

As Mexico continues to grapple with these delays, the pressure on AMLO's successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has intensified. Sheinbaum has made energy sovereignty a cornerstone of her agenda, pledging to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign fuel by producing and refining all the fuel it consumes. However, the issues at Dos Bocas threaten to undermine her efforts. Pemex is struggling with integrating the various subsections of the plant, which have been managed by multiple subcontractors, leading to a lack of coordination and quality control. As of late 2024, Dos Bocas had shut down temporarily due to quality issues with the oil it needs for refining.

The stakes are even higher as the new US President, Donald Trump, threatens to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican oil imports, which could severely impact Mexico's energy strategy. While Mexico currently exports crude oil to the United States, it re-imports refined fuels, a practice that could become unsustainable if tariffs are enacted. This adds urgency to the completion of Dos Bocas, but the refinery has yet to produce commercial quantities of gasoline or diesel. By the end of 2024, the refinery was operating at a mere 17.5% of its capacity, mainly producing low-sulfur diesel from already-refined stock.

Pemex’s other refineries also face operational challenges, with many plants operating at less than 50% of their capacity. Despite promises that Dos Bocas would start easing the country's dependence on imports, it remains far from achieving this goal. "Mexico is not going to stop importing fuel from the US anytime soon," said energy analyst Pablo Zarate. This continued reliance on foreign fuel highlights the difficulties Mexico faces in achieving energy self-sufficiency.

The situation is further complicated by environmental concerns and lawsuits related to the refinery’s construction. Built on a mangrove swamp, the site has experienced sinkholes and flooding issues, adding to the already long list of challenges. Fires and infighting within Pemex have further delayed progress, and there are now doubts about whether the refinery will ever reach its full potential, processing 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude as originally planned.

With Sheinbaum now in office and inheriting this troubled project, the task of resolving these issues has become more critical than ever. Sheinbaum's promise to make Mexico energy sovereign rests heavily on the successful completion of Dos Bocas. However, the continued delays and rising costs suggest that this ambitious goal may take far longer to achieve than expected, leaving Mexico's energy future uncertain.