The two opposition coalitions running in the Czech parliamentary elections held a month ago have reached an agreement on how to govern together, which will be signed on Monday, November 8, following the constituent session of the Chamber of Deputies. 

The new coalition government of SPOLU (Civic Democrats, Christian Democrats and TOP09), and the Pirate party and Mayors and Independents will be composed of 18 ministers, including three new posts for legislation, research and innovation, and EU affairs. 

SPOLU will be in charge of finance, defence, labour and social affairs, transportation, health, justice, agriculture, environment, culture, and the new research and innovation post. The Pirates and Mayors will run the ministries of interior, trade and industry, education, regional development and digitization, foreign affairs, and the posts for legislation and EU affairs.

The programme and the names of the individual ministers have not yet been released, but the ODS is reported to control the key finance ministry post, where it has pledged to slash the country's huge budget deficit following the spending programmes to ameliorate the pandemic.

The outgoing Prime Minister Andrej Babis has criticized the new cabinet for adding new ministerial posts which he said would increase costs and burden the state budget.

"We consider it useful to return to the position of Minister for Science, Research and Innovation, which takes care of a significant part of the budget and also a topic that is extremely important for the future success of the Czech Republic," responded Petr Fiala, leader of the SPOLU coalition, chairman of the rightwing ODS party, and the candidate for the next PM. 

Regarding the Minister for European Affairs, Fiala, a former university rector, said that the new minister should not only be preparing the Czech presidency of the EU, which starts on July 1, 2022, but he should also better coordinate European policy "so that the Czech Republic can take advantage of its membership in the EU and better promote its interests," Fiala explained. 

As for the minister for legislation, Fiala said that his government wants to significantly improve the quality of legislation in the country. "We don't want to see such poorly prepared bills as we witnessed in the previous parliamentary term. We want to cut through the legal jungle and make a more sensible legal system. That is why we have decided to assign a member of the government to take care of legislation and to chair the government's legislative council," he said. 

The coalition agreement now needs to be approved internally by all parties. Close attention will be paid to the liberal-left Pirate party, as some of its members are strongly against joining the government and the party has many policy differences with the rightwing ODS. But even if the Pirates do not end up entering the government, the governing coalition of four parties will still have a majority of 104 MPs in the 200-member chamber (it will have 108 with the Pirates).

For their failure to secure more seats, the Pirates blame their coalition partner, the Mayors. According to a Pirates' internal analysis, the Mayors violated the coalition agreement by asking their voters to give preference votes to their candidates on the joint list the party ran with the Pirates. In an interview for the daily Pravo, the leader of the Mayors Vit Rakusan said that next time his movement will be running in the elections as a single party. 

The outgoing government of Andrej Babis is expected to submit its resignation after the constituent session of the lower house. Babis had originally indicated that President Zeman had offered him the first chance to form the government, but that the billionaire populist said he had turned the offer down after it became clear none of the opposition parties would work with him.

"We are waiting for the lower house to establish its bodies, if it does, I will immediately convene the cabinet and we will resign," he said, adding he had not discussed the exact date with President Milos Zeman.

Zeman, who is currently in hospital, is expected to accept the resignation (more likely in writing) and appoint Fiala as PM to form a new government.  

On November 4, Zeman was transferred from an intensive care unit to a standard room. Zeman was admitted to the Central Military Hospital (UVN) on October 10, just after the general elections were held, with complications resulting from his chronic liver illness, the result of a lifetime of heavy drinking. 

In an interview for Frekvence 1 radio last week the president said that his "real condition is based on the fact that I don't like to eat and that I have poor digestion. The steps that have been taken here in the hospital have led to the fact that I am now completely normal and thank God for that," the president said.

The Speaker of the Senate Milos Vystrcil confirmed that given Zeman´s improved health condition the upper chamber will not move to activate Article 66 of the Czech Constitution, according to which the MPs can transfer the president’s powers to senior state officials, following the president's announcement that he was ready to take the steps needed to form a new government. This for now removes the threat of stripping Zeman of his powers.

TOP09 chair Marketa Adamova Pekarova, however, still believes that the activation of Article 66 of the constitution should not be shelved. "We should not resign from the procedure that we have started (...) We will demand an update again, a new report from UVN, it should be the main thing that is an indication for us," she said.

The medical council, composed of nine experts, including Zeman´s doctor, and the director of UVN, outgoing Charles University rector Tomas Zima, surgeon Pavel Pafka and physiotherapist Pavel Kolar, met on November 5 and said that Zeman was still not at present capable of fully carrying out his presidential duties. This does not yet concern appointing a new government; this could be done in a few weeks.

In an interview, Zeman told the radio he was surprised by the failure of the Pirates in the parliamentary elections. The Pirates won only four seats, down from 22 in the previous electoral period, while their coalition partner Mayors got 33 seats (up by 27). 

Zeman confirmed he is prepared to nominate Fiala as the new PM, however, he has not said whether he will nominate the new cabinet as suggested by Fiala. "For my part, I will do everything I can to ensure that this government is formed as quickly as possible," the president said. 

Zeman has been known to have reservations about some ministerial candidates in the past, especially with ministries held by his former party, the Social Democrats, over the past eight years, but these mainly involled people he wanted to settle accounts with.

According to Fiala, Czechia is now in a difficult economic and epidemiological situation and needs a new government with a clear mandate based on the election results. The coalition representatives and the potential ministers stressed that it is key to continue building new relationships with countries that are important for Czechia in terms of politics, values and economy. With the new government, there is a clear orientation towards the EU and, in terms of security, towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). 

"We should focus on supporting science, research and innovation," said Pirate party MP and potential candidate for foreign minister Jan Lipavsky, adding that he sees cooperation with Taiwan on transferring chip production to Europe as an opportunity for the Czech Republic.

Fiala as PM is expected to represent a different voice of Czechia abroad. "He can win just by adopting a different tone and vocabulary towards Visegrad [compared to Babis]. I don't expect him to tear apart [Visegrad Group ] V4 ties but his rhetoric will not be as indistinguishable as Andrej Babis´. That is where the rest of the European partners expect relief," said Brussels journalist for Rozhlas radio Katerina Safarikova.

Babis hopes that Fiala will realise the importance of V4, which often faces criticism. "I don't understand why anyone criticises the V4. This bloc of four countries has played a crucial role in the fight against illegal migration. The V4 is important and they are our biggest partners in terms of exports and imports. There are historical ties. It would be a pity if the bloc were to break up. I hope the next prime minister will realise how important this grouping is," Babis said.

After the elections, the government and its parties will have one more task to address – to agree on the next presidential candidate. Zeman´s term is to expire in spring 2023 at the latest – earlier if his health problems worsen. 

According to a STEM/MARK poll published recently titled "Czechs want an independent president with moral authority", Babis leads in first round preferences, followed by TV moderator Marek Eben who is, however, ruling out running for the presidential post. However, according to commentators, Babis might lose against a candidate backed by the united opposition in the second round run-off.

By going to opposition, Babis is preparing ground for his candidacy, promising voters that better times would come if he was elected to the Prague Castle. He has already started with approaching voters of his left-wing erstwhile partners, the Social Democrats, the Communists and the Oath party of Robert Slachta, which all failed to enter parliament. 

"Those of you who voted for the Social Democrats, for the Communists or the Oath, to all of you who voted and your parties did not get into the lower house, I want to say that your votes did not fail. I am here for you. I will be your voice in the house. You can count on that," Babis said in his speech after the elections on ´being in the opposition´.

"The greatest level of importance of the presidential post is seen among those who may feel they are not currently represented. This also applies to voters of parties that did not make it to the lower house," said Jan Burianec of STEM/MARK. These voters are likely to be targeted by the outgoing PM. 

"Andrej Babis would have passed the first round of the [presidential] election without difficulty. If he addressed only ANO voters, he would have won more votes than [current Senator] Jiri Drahos did in 2018. He would also be able to rely on the supporters of the left and nationalist parties who were defeated in the elections,” thinks a specialist on political marketing Karel Pluhar. 

According to Pluhar, the big question here is how Babis would do in the second round. “The sooner the presidential election is held, the better chance Andrej Babis has of success," he stressed.

"I believe that some people like to balance the political forces between Parliament and Prague Castle, so in the future some would like to see Babis as president to oversee the government of Petr Fiala more critically," Burianec said. 

Babis at the Prague Castle would be a major test of ANO´s long-term viability, said commentator for SeznamZpravy Jindrich Sidlo. "ANO was founded as a movement or a service apparatus of one person with a clear reason. The possible departure of Andrej Babis would therefore be a very difficult test," the commentator said.

"I think the only thing that could stop him [in the candidacy] is his unwillingness to lose a second time. There are rumours about polls that Andrej Babis is said to have at his disposal that show what his chances in the second round are. It is quite clear that he would pass the first one," Sidlo believes.