Hungary's parliament has approved legislation to amend assembly laws in a fast-track procedure on March 18 effectively banning Pride marches. The bill ostensibly targets Pride events under the guise of child protection but introduces broader measures that could stifle dissent.

The legislation imposes stiff penalties for organisers and participants alike, up to HUF200,000 (€500). The law excludes the possibility of redemption by community service.

The law expands the use of facial recognition technology, allowing authorities to track individuals for "preventive" purposes, not just investigations. Critics argue this paves the way for a Chinese-style digital surveillance state, enabling authorities to monitor and penalise protesters remotely, reducing the need for visible police crackdowns.

Opposition Momentum MPs disrupted the vote from the back benches by setting off smoke flares, playing a recording of the Soviet national anthem, and dropping flyers depicting the Russian president and the Hungarian PM kissing into the chamber from the first floor. Opposition parties and civil groups warned that the move signals a shift from Hungary's hybrid regime to outright autocracy, as restrictions on civil liberties intensify.

Viktor Orban has clearly scaled up his attacks on NGOs, and the media since Donald Trump's election victory a year before what could be his most challenging electoral contest yet against the opposition frontrunner, the Tisza Party.

In his state of the nation address at the end of February, Hungary's Prime Minister urged organisers of the Pride event to reconsider holding this year's march. He also pledged a tough response to what he termed the Soros network, alongside NGOs, independent media, and other civil society groups funded from abroad.

In a speech on the national holiday, Hungary's nationalist leader portrayed his political adversaries as foreign-backed "Brussels lackeys" who must be "swept away" in a "spring cleaning." He also referred to political opponents, judges, journalists and civil activists as bedbugs, which triggered widespread outrage and forced Orbán to offer a different interpretation a day later.

Orbán's increasingly combative position on LGBTQ+ issues and government critics seems to be a deliberate part of his broader political strategy to consolidate his conservative support or even expand it by luring voters from the radical right.

A few thousand demonstrators gathered in Budapest's Kossuth Square in front of Parliament after the vote, organised by Momentum. Protesters closed on the famous Chain Bridge connecting Buda with Pest in the evening hours even as police pre-emptively shut the bridge, preventing access. The crowd, which was chanting anti-government slogans and singing patriotic songs, dispersed after 10 pm.

The government has lost its grip on the political narrative, as real-life issues affecting ordinary people begin to dominate the discourse at a time when public sentiment is increasingly bleak.

Fidesz is attempting to re-assert control by returning to its old playbook, dominating the discourse, deepening ideological divides and forcing the opposition into a defensive stance, which has worked in the past, a political analyst said. Gabor Torok added that the risk for Tisza is taking the bait, or falling into the traditional opposition role and playing the part Fidesz has scripted for him.

The risk for Fidesz is going too far with pushing to a point which could lead to a churn down of its core base. Banning the Pride March is not that point, as the vast majority of Fidesz voters, and a sizeable majority of inactive voters, agree with it.

Peter Magyar did not specifically comment on the legislation; instead, he urged to support the "Voice of the Nation" referendum drive, similar to that of the government's national consultation survey, and said the government's legislation serves to steer attention from the cost of living crisis. Magyar, however, did stress earlier that he opposed the legislation, which he sees unconstitutional because it curtails the right of assembly. 

He highlighted the hypocrisy of Fidesz politicians, who, prior to 2021, had repeatedly made public statements expressing tolerance toward the Pride March. Despite the ruling party's long-standing conservative stance, several high-ranking officials had previously adopted a more permissive tone, acknowledging the event as a legitimate expression of free assembly.

Michael O'Flaherty, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe expressed his concern on social media: "Very concerned about a new law adopted in Hungary today which restricts freedom of assembly and provides the basis for banning events like Pride marches. I call on the President of Hungary to veto the law," he wrote on X.