* Part I here
* Part II
* Part III
* Part IV

Our Outlook Turkey 2019 report noted: “Erdogan continues to keep everyone guessing, one moment talking up the prospects of a Moscow-Ankara axis holding sway on crux issues, the next moment implying that as various rows with the US have been resolved—for instance, US pastor Andrew Brunson’s fate was resolved when a Turkish court allowed him to fly home in October [2018], and the US alliance with Kurdish forces deemed enemies by the Turks appears to be dissolving given Donald Trump’s late December decision to withdraw the American military from Syria—Turkey might be set to work more closely with the Trump administration.

“But who knows what U-turn Trump will announce next and there are still some knotty disagreements that could yet cause more ructions between Turkey and the US. These include Turkey’s refusal so far to back Trump’s sanctions-led economic war against Iran… Russia’s S-400 missile system… blocking the delivery of any F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey if it does not scrap the S-400 purchase… and Erdogan’s closeness to the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

“Another unknown is whether Erdogan might still place obstacles in the way of Trump preserving his backing of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman…

“Meanwhile, gas reserves off the divided island of Cyprus remain another possible flash point…”

As 2018 neared its end, Turkey claimed the ugly distinction for a third straight year of being the world’s biggest jailer of journalists. As 2019 drew to a close, the annual survey of the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) showed the country now in second place—but coming second to China, with its gigantic population, is hardly something to bring cheer to Turkish civil society. The human rights situation in Turkey remains desperate, but as the post-truth world slips further and further into the hands of the insidious populists, seldom is an eyebrow raised among Western populations now too wrapped up in the prospects for their own precarious existence amid markets and politicians that, should social discourse deteriorate further, may be primed for a fight to the death. Hence, autocrats like Erdogan can strip citizens of their rights at will. If he continues to get a free ride from the ‘Leader of the Free World’, only a domestic pushback can stop him.

Erdogan ping pongs between Trump and Vladimir Putin, each time picking up tactical assistance that keeps his pot on the boil (in October he scored an astonishing success in getting Trump to abandon the Syrian Kurdish militias who lost 11,000 fighters while providing the essential ground force in the Uncle Sam-led campaign to destroy the so-called caliphate of Islamic State in Syria. Rarely can the Pentagon have been so shame-faced). Many pundits who cut their teeth covering the Cold War were convinced that Erdogan’s growing closeness to the Kremlin would bring on a US attempt to crush him, but these are entirely new times and they ignored the fact that Trump in the White House is Putin’s biggest success. The US and Russia, allies in the two world wars, have a common interest in stopping China’s rise and bringing about the destruction of the European Union. Turkey, at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and a gateway to the Middle East, will always be a big piece on the chess board. As a strongman they can do business with, Erdogan—who clearly thinks he can do business with Boris Johnson’s UK and is wont to rattle Europe’s cage—is not someone either Putin or Trump, or the part-Turkish descended UK PM would let go of easily.

Supposed Nato ally Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 advanced missile defence systems, the indictment in the 'The US vs Halkbank' Iran sanctions-busting case and Turkey’s actions in Syria have incensed senators on both sides of the floor in the US Senate and could provoke meaningful sanctions—but Trump has continued to stand in the way and, though is backing is always unpredictable, Erdogan has managed to rely on his dissent in the face of Congress for a good while now. ‘Fake sanctions’ that mean diddly squat are all that Trump has let through up till now. Erdogan, meanwhile, makes a big play of shopping for Russian fighter aircraft. Between them, Trump, Putin and Erdogan are running rings around “brain-dead” Nato, as Emmanuel Macron lately dubbed it.

Unless the Democrats get their act together, November 2020 could deliver a Trump landslide and the allegations that the American president has mixed his Istanbul business interests, such as Trump Towers, with foreign policy may for ever remain untested—the evidence that something is awry sits in plain sight, and has even led to mutterings at a private dinner to hedge fund bosses from former Trump national security advisor John Bolton, but the Democrats and US press, not to mention the strained attention span of the American electorate, seem too distracted and exhausted by the ongoing impeachment affair and previous ‘Russiagate’ inquiry to bring about an examination of the relations between the American and Turkish populists. Scandal is the new normal.

Almighty mess that is Syria

Syria remains an almighty mess and it will not be solved within 2020. The main difficulty in its north, which concerns northern neighbour Turkey, is the dozens of thousands of jihadists in Idlib.

Erdogan signed the Sochi agreement with Russia and Iran to take responsibility for the Idlib jihadists.

Russia has so far conducted controlled advances across the northern region. The situation might flare up at any time but it currently appears that this approach will continue through 2020. As for the parts in the northeast, invaded by Erdogan, it presently seems he will stay there for the foreseeable future. As long as the Turkish leader does nothing to seriously rile Putin or Trump, his voter-rousing military antics in his own backyard will be tolerated.

Feeble EU

The EU is locked in divisive issues, including how to handle the UK now that Brexit is moving ahead and the misbehaving Polish and Hungarian populists. These and other difficulties could determine whether it will soon be dealing with a threat to its very survival—at least in the format it exists now—and pragmatism will ensure that it will have little time to spare for lecturing Erdogan on what kind of behaviour is expected of him should he ever wish to truly see Turkey’s application to join the bloc treated seriously.

The limp response from Europe so far to Turkey’s persistent offshore drilling for gas and oil in what EU member Cyprus claims is its exclusive economic zone is a good example of how useless the eurocrats have become in keeping the Turks on the straight and narrow. The EU has become a favourite toy of Erdogan’s—flinging invective at Brussels, Berlin or Paris is another way of rousing his base.

There is no gas on the side of Cyprus facing Turkey but Erdogan can make plenty of helpful domestic political noise by aggressively pursuing a share of the resources claimed by the Greek Cypriots for the Turkish Cypriots and Ankara.

More such noise comes from Erdogan’s backing for the UN-recognised Libya administration of Fayez al-Serraj in the face of anti-government forces led by Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA), which have received support from Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. An unknown number of Russian mercenaries are said to be present in Libya, backing Haftar. Erdogan has said he will meet a request from al-Serraj for Turkish troops. He will in January meet Putin to discuss the Libya situation. As things stand, it seems unlikely Erdogan will experience either a great triumph or big self-inflicted wound in Libya. Noise it will likely remain, though entering into such a scenario is never without risk. Things can always run out of control.