Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, met with Lieutenant General SM Kamrul Hassan of the Bangladesh military in Islamabad in mid-January, signalling a shift in relations between the two nations. The meeting, held against the backdrop of shared concerns over India, was the highlight of Hassan’s visit to Pakistan, during which he also engaged with other senior military officials.

For much of the 54 years since Bangladesh gained its independence from Pakistan, ties between the two countries have remained strained at best. Relations worsened during the nearly 16-year tenure of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was ousted in August 2024, following mass protests and later fled to India, a key ally of her administration. It is believed Hasina is still living in India, in the eyes of some in Bangladesh, being protected from extradition by their larger neighbour.

Since her departure, however, Islamabad and Dhaka have started to show signs of rapprochement.

During the meeting, both military leaders emphasised the importance of bolstering defence cooperation and maintaining strategic independence from external influences. This engagement forms part of a broader pattern of high-level exchanges between the two capitals. In December, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, in Cairo.

Their discussions followed an earlier meeting at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024. A further sign of warming ties also saw Pakistan’s serving Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, schedule a February visit Bangladesh - the first in well over a decade.

Legacy of tensions

Historical grievances between Islamabad and Dhaka date back to Bangladesh’s 1971 War of Independence. That conflict saw Pakistani forces and allied militias engaged in violent repression, with independent estimates suggesting that many hundreds of thousands were killed and at least 200,000 women subjected to sexual violence. The war was led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the now disgraced Hasina’s father, with the backing of the Indian army, culminating in Bangladesh’s independence.

Changing regional dynamics

Some analysts now believe that the recent realignment is influenced by Bangladesh’s own shifting relationship with India. Strained ties between Dhaka and New Delhi as a supporter of Hasina’s government have effectively prompted Dhaka to reassess its strategic partnerships.

In part this renewed self-assurance of sorts saw the interim government in Bangladesh request that India extradite Hasina to face legal proceedings over alleged human rights violations during her tenure. At time of writing it is believed New Delhi has yet to respond.

Concerns in India over the treatment of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, who make up around 8% of the population, have further complicated relations. India has repeatedly voiced fears over the safety of Bangladeshi Hindus, while Dhaka has dismissed these claims, going so far as to accuse Indian media of spreading misinformation.

Neutral observers thus suggest Bangladesh is seeking to strike a balance rather than adopt an overtly anti-India stance. With a long shared border and critical water resources originating in India, Dhaka remains dependent on maintaining functional ties with its neighbour. Power supplies too make their way from west to east across the shared border, benefitting millions in Bangladesh.

As such, analysts caution that while diplomatic engagements with Pakistan are noteworthy, and are improving, they do not necessarily signal a fundamental shift in regional geopolitics.

Afghanistan

At the same time as Bangladesh’s outreach to Pakistan is making headlines, so too are broader geopolitical developments. Notably these include India’s engagement with Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers.

Although New Delhi has not formally recognised the Taliban government, senior Indian officials have reportedly met with Afghan leaders in recent months.

In January, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri held discussions with Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai. It is the highest level meeting between the two countries to date.

This engagement has led to some unease in Islamabad as a long-time supported of the Taliban even if Pakistan’s influence over the group has waned of late.

This is in large part the result of attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Sunni Islamist nationalist organisation ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban.

Islamabad has accused Kabul of harbouring TTP fighters, a claim the Taliban denies.

A fresh start

Some analysts, even with the Afghan issue thrown in, view the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh relationship as a fresh start, particularly in military and security cooperation.

As such, there is already speculation that Bangladesh may be seeking defence collaboration with Pakistan. Others point to economic factors as a key driver, with Pakistan looking to diversify its trade partnerships amid domestic economic struggles.

Bangladesh is, in this regard one of the region’s better economies, having marked a growth rate of 6% since 2021. Pakistan, by contrast, recorded just 2.5% growth in 2024 and trade between the two nations remains limited, with Pakistan’s exports to Bangladesh valued at $661m, compared to imports worth $57m.

For now though, with diplomatic barriers easing, and improvements in travel and visa policies having been put in place, and geopolitical concerns notwithstanding, Islamabad appears to see an opportunity to foster closer ties with Dhaka. It is an opportunity Dhaka too seems keen to look into.