Polish core inflation growth rate jumps to 4.3% y/y in September

Polish core inflation growth rate jumps to 4.3% y/y in September

/ bne IntelliNews

By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw October 17, 2024

Poland’s core inflation, an indicator that measures price growth without including food and energy, picked up to 4.3% y/y in September (chart) after a gain of 3.7% y/y the preceding month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on October 16.

The acceleration comes after two months of easing and is in line with the headline inflation rate picking up recently as well. The CPI picked up its expansion rate 0.6pp to 4.9% y/y in September, the statistical office GUS said earlier this month. The NBP’s inflation target is 2.5%, with a deviation of 1pp either way.

"The increase was driven by the rise in service price inflation, which reached 6.8% year-on-year, up from 6.2% in August. Given expectations of wage growth in the service sector outpacing the long-term average, service price inflation is likely to exceed the inflation target for an extended period,” Bank Millennium said in a comment.

In that context, the NBP is unlikely to ease monetary policy soon. The NBP is currently expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% until mid-2025, with any changes coming only after there is more clarity about the inflation rate’s trajectory.

In month-on-month terms, core inflation growth remained at 0.3% in September, the NBP data also showed.

#macro #Poland #inflation #coreinflation #CPI #NBP #monetarypolicy #interestrates

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