The Polish consumer price index (CPI) lessened its expansion rate to 4.7% year on year in November (chart) from 5% y/y in October, data from Poland’s statistical office GUS showed on December 13.

The reading is 0.1pp higher than the flash estimate GUS published in late November. The inflation rate continues to linger above the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) target range of 1.5%-3.5%, all but ruling out any monetary policy easing before mid-2025, analysts say. The NBP’s key interest rate has been at a two-decade high of 5.75% since October 2023.

Inflation has accelerated in the second half of the year in the wake of growing energy prices after the government phased out some of the pandemic-era price controls in July, triggering price growth across other sectors of the economy.

“We believe that the y/y decline in CPI inflation in November is temporary and was driven by the low base effect. In the coming months, inflation is expected to rise again, exceeding 5% in December before peaking above 5.5% y/y in March 2025,” Santander Bank Polska said in a comment.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks drove the headline figure, despite easing the expansion rate to 4.8% y/y in the eleventh month after a gain of 4.9% y/y in October, the breakdown of the data showed. 

Housing and energy price growth picked up slightly to 9.9% y/y in November - against a gain of 9.9% y/y the preceding month.

Prices in another major segment, culture and recreation expanded 6.1% y/y in November after gaining 5.5% y/y the preceding month, GUS data also showed.

Meanwhile, the transport segment saw prices slide 4.1% y/y in November after a fall of 0.4% y/y the preceding month.

In month-on-month terms, the CPI expanded 0.5% in November after adding 0.3% in October, GUS data also showed.

The November CPI reading does not change the monetary policy outlook for Poland, according to Bank Millennium. In fact, the National Bank of Poland appeared to have adopted a more hawkish stance recently.

According to the NBP chief Adam Glapinski, “October 2025 is the time to start discussions about resuming interest rate cuts, and the cuts themselves may even be postponed until 2026,” Bank Millennium noted. The bank’s analysts added, however, that Glapinski might be isolated in his hawkish view.

“We maintain our scenario that interest rate cuts will resume in mid-2025. The year 2025 is expected to be a period of monetary easing, albeit on a modest scale, driven by forecasts of solid economic growth alongside wage growth that remains above the long-term average,” Bank Millennium also said.