Polish retail sales expanded 1.9% year on year at constant prices in December (chart), well below expectations of a 3.8% annual gain, the statistics office GUS said on January 23.

The expansion follows a gain of 3.1% y/y the preceding month. The disappointment in December points to households still being prone to save rather than spend amidst real wages’ growth easing in the company segment, analysts say.

“Additionally, it is possible that a larger-than-usual portion of holiday shopping, particularly gifts, was shifted to November, especially given that November retail sales data positively surprised expectations,” Bank Millennium said in a comment.

Consumption is expected to drive Poland’s economic growth to just below 3% in 2024, after an expansion of just 0.1% last year. 

Looking ahead, consumption will remain an important pillar of the economy in 2025, even with saving expected to limit the scale of consumption expansion. 

“We maintain our scenario of GDP growth reaching 3.7% in 2025, with recovering investment the main driver,” Bank Millennium also said.

Growth in December came on the back of five out of eight main retail segments expanding in y/y terms, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data.

Sales of cars and car parts eased growth to a still robust 25.1% y/y in the twelfth month, after a gain of 28.1% y/y in November. In the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics segment, sales expanded 1.7% y/y in December, easing considerably after a gain of 7.2% y/y the preceding month.

Fuels sales grew 3.2% y/y in December after adding 4.1% y/y the preceding month, GUS data also showed. 

Press, books, and “other sales in specialised stores” expanded 4.2% y/y in December after declining 11.7% in November. In the bulk “other” category, sales expanded 14.8% y/y, 0.1pp below the November reading.

Elsewhere, sales fell. The textiles, clothing and shoes segment contracted 12.2% y/y in December (-14.7% y/y in November).

Sales of food, drinks and tobacco products fell 4.3% y/y in December after falling 0.2% y/y the preceding month. 

Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment and domestic appliances slid 4% y/y in December after falling 2.3% y/y in November.

Sales expanded 9.9% month on month at constant prices in December after the November decline of -2.2% m/m, GUS data also showed.

In current prices, retail turnover grew 2.7% y/y in December, after growing 3.4% y/y in November. In m/m terms there was a gain of 9.8% m/m (-0.7% m/m the preceding month).

Retail turnover retreated 1.3% m/m in December following seasonal adjustment, after adding 1% m/m in November, GUS data also showed.