President Andrzej Duda announced Poland will hold a general election on October 15, with the radical rightwing Law and Justice party hoping to winning an unprecedented third term, Polish news agencies IAR and PAP reported on August 8.

Poland’s governing conservatives in March launched an effort to win a third consecutive term in power, starting a nationwide tour to rally voters ahead of the elections and promising a raft of new policies “to make Poland stronger and secure”.

But the ruling party has struggled to win over voters beyond its conservative, Catholic and largely rural base, leaving it potentially well short of a majority. Opinion polls show Law and Justice with a lead over the biggest opposition party, Civic Platform, with the support of about a third of the electorate. Law and Justice is likely to struggle to secure the 44% of the vote it won in 2019, Bloomberg reported on August 8.

“The future of Poland is a matter for each of us,” Duda said in a post on X, the social media platform previously known as Twitter. 

The fractured opposition blames the ruling Law and Justice’s coalition for failing to curb the cost-of-living crisis or resolve a growing list of legal disputes with the European Union that have frozen €35.4 billion in aid.

The opposition appears to be set to enter the parliamentary election race divided into three separate blocs, one led by Civic Platform, a second grouping the centrist Poland 2050 and the rural-based Polish People’s Party (PSL), and the third comprising the leftwing parties. 

During eight years in power, the ruling Law and Justice party has consolidated its electorate by offering an array of popular social programmes, including subsidies to families with children, pension increases and a lower retirement age.

However, this time around, Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Poland’s most powerful politician, has struggled to gain traction with a bolstered spending plan for families.

He’s also misfired with an effort to target Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk, the former European Council president, for allegedly being soft on Russia. Law and Justice has championed legislation designed to effectively place Tusk under investigation for Russian links ahead of the vote — a measure that drew a sharp rebuke from the US and EU, Bloomberg said.

Three months ahead of the ballot, neither main party has seen a boost in the polls, raising the spectre of a deadlock after votes are cast. Much electoral energy has gone to Konfederacja (Confederation), an alliance of far-right and eurosceptic groups that have mixed anti-Ukrainian and anti-immigrant rhetoric with a radical small-government vision.

The newfound popularity of Confederation, particularly among younger voters, has transformed a force once on the fringes of Polish politics into a a potential kingmaker. While Law and Justice has dismissed talk of an alliance, it may be hard pressed to secure a majority without Confederation. 

The ruling conservatives in 2019 won a convincing victory over opposition parties at the ballot box, securing a second term in power. They maintained a majority in the 460-seat lower house, but narrowly lost control of the 100-seat upper house, the Senate.

The upper house is less powerful than the lower chamber, but it can delay or amend legislation. The Sejm, the lower house, needs to muster an absolute majority to override Senate amendments.

In February, Poland’s four main opposition parties, including Poland 2050 and the PSL, agreed to join forces in the next race for the Senate.