Russia was accused of interfering in Romania’s November 24 presidential election that saw far-right and pro-Russian outsider Calin Georgescu storm to a shock first round victory. But an investigation by the tax authorities has exonerated the Kremlin and revealed the highly effective TikTok campaign was funded by the liberal, pro-EU National Liberal Party (PNL) in an effort to knock out a rival in a plan that badly backfired.

Evidence revealed by the National Agency for Fiscal Administration (ANAF), Romania’s tax agency, called into question claims that Russian-induced algorithmic manipulations on the TikTok platform would have brought far-right candidate Georgescu to first place in the second round.

Russia has been accused of hijacking the electoral process, although no concrete evidence has been produced, and that was enough for the Romanian Constitutional Court to take the unprecedented step of annulling the presidential election. The first annulment of elections in Romania in modern history has set a serious political precedent and sent shockwaves through the EU as it potentially undermines Romania’s democratic credentials.

On the one hand, the 9.4mn first round votes, of which almost 805,000 were from people in the diaspora, were annulled. The argument that accompanied this decision was that Georgescu's victory in the first round, with 2.1mn votes, was not authentic due to Russian interference through the TikTok campaign. To some extent, the constant reference to the Russian hybrid war in neighbouring Moldova led to a resumption of the argument that Russia could actually be behind Georgescu's "meteoric" rise. Moreover, Georgescu was an open supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin's governing style and he had called repeatedly for an end to support for Ukraine. These comments were used by various NGOs and media outlets in Romania and abroad to label him as a "Russian asset".

However, the more obvious explanation for Georgescu's unexpected electoral success, given the lack of evidence of Russian interference, is his support was a protest vote against the establishment parties.

The ANAF investigation revealed that Georgescu’s TikTok campaign was carried out by another actor: the PNL via the offices of a Romanian PR firm, Kensington Communication.

The cancellation of the elections has put Romania in a delicate position vis-à-vis the EU and Nato. Both organisations had to react to information provided by Bucharest about Russian interference involving TikTok's algorithms. The platform is increasingly seen as harmful for the West. The European Commission has already launched an investigation against TikTok on suspicions of malign electoral influence. The two main risks attributed to TikTok are the "recommender system", which can be manipulated by creating inauthentic behaviour among users, and political campaigns that can go unnoticed by the platform's "advertising policy". According to the "retention order" under the Digital Services Act of the EU, issued by Brussels in early December, TikTok is obliged to collect valuable data on electoral processes and civic discourses related to elections in EU states held until March 2025.

“Russian” or “non-Russian” manipulation

The ANAF discovered that the campaign promoting Georgescu was actually funded by the PNL and carried out by Kensington Communication.

Initially, the PR company’s message was dedicated to promoting European values ​​and against extremist candidates under the hashtag #echilibrusiseriozitate. The company was funded by the PNL but presented itself as a civic public awareness activity. In fact, before the presidential elections the company targeted far-right presidential candidates, including George Simion of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), because they promoted the pro-EU vote. The hashtag #echilibrusiseriozitate, used for political purposes to create an unfavourable environment for non-liberal presidential candidates on TikTok, was replaced by #echilibrusiverticalitate on the FameUP platform. The new hashtag was eventually used by users who were supporters of Georgescu, as noted by the Romanian intelligence services (CSAT). 130 influencers involved by PNL and Kensington Communication to indirectly promote voting for pro-Western candidates ended up spreading the message that benefited Georgescu, reaching 2.4mn views.

The ANAF revelations revealed that TikTok has been used by liberal forces with the aim of mobilising voters to vote for a pro-EU candidate. Despite this, with PNL money, the campaign catapulted Georgescu into the political stratosphere of Romanian politics. According to Kensington Communication's claims, someone manipulated the hashtag and used it to Georgescu's advantage. The new situation fuels the argument of far-right political forces who accuse establishment parties, including the PNL, of using institutional leverage on courts and electoral bodies to prevent the change of political power through elections. Georgescu called on the Romanian General Prosecutor to take action and accuses the PNL of alleged election manipulation on TikTok.

The implications of the Romanian precedent

The Romanian precedent has raised serious concerns in the West about the possibility that TikTok could pervert the election result. However, the twist that the ANAF uncovered the involvement of the PNL party, which had manipulated Romania’s electoral behaviour on TikTok, completely changed the conversation. The fact that Romanian security institutions have failed to prove Russian involvement, but instead showed that a domestic player, the PNL, was actually behind the attempt to manipulate votes, jeopardises Romania’s political stability. The credibility of the Constitutional Court, reputedly a neutral actor, has also been shredded after it cancelled the elections on little more than hearsay.

Romanian far-right parties, including their symbolic representative in the anti-establishment Georgescu, have received a major boost and intend to take the case to court and retaliate against state institutions on the basis of the ANAF revelations. They are hoping to take advantage of the fiasco to win political advantage and more votes in the inevitable rerun of the presidential elections, which could also be followed by early legislative elections, if the newly elected parliament does not form a new stable government.

Support for Georgescu is likely to surge, as he was already riding on the back of a protest vote against the incumbents before the current scandal broke. The attempt to manipulate the vote by the PNL will only undermine the incumbent's position further and mobilise more protest votes in Romania and in the diaspora. At the same time, the argument that Russia interfered has been seriously damaged and partially neutralised. This represents a small victory for Russia in its information war inside and outside Romania. Finally, this case also has the potential to discredit legitimate concerns about Russia’s hybrid interference in the EU and Nato member states.