Russia moves to maintain Libya foothold following reduced influence in Syria

By bne IntelliNews December 16, 2024

An air bridge between Russia and Libya was established earlier this week with two Ilyushin-76TD aircraft (RA-76841 and RA-76845) operating shuttle flights between Russia and Al-Khadim Airbase near Benghazi, Africa Press reported on December 14.

This development reflects Moscow's broader intent to cement its influence in North Africa amid shifting geopolitical dynamics following the ouster of the Assad regime in Libya, from where Russia stages its Africa operations.

The two aircraft belong to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, which often conducts operations on behalf of the Ministry of Defence. The apparent goal is to establish a military and naval base in the area. Such a base would enable Russia to project power across the Mediterranean and secure a strategic foothold near European borders.

The Russian military presence in Libya includes military assets and personnel previously linked to the private military company Wagner Group, now a part of the Africa Corps under the Ministry of Defence.

The tactical shift also demonstrates a continuation of Moscow’s hybrid warfare tactics as it utilises paramilitary groups to secure influence while maintaining plausible deniability.

Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has kept its airspace open to Russian aircraft. The sanctions and restrictions imposed by other NATO members on Russia did not prevent the air bridge. Ankara's position adds complexity to NATO's efforts to counter Russian activities in the region and underscores divergent interests among alliance members.

Russia's ongoing aerial activity in the region could eventually pose a major challenge to NATO and raise concerns about shifting power dynamics in the Mediterranean, intensifying the already tense situation in war-torn Libya. Moreover, the situation highlights Libya’s strategic importance as a battleground for international influence and competition.

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