Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.1% y/y in 3Q24, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on November 29.

TUIK also updated its 2Q24 figure to 2.4% y/y from the previously stated 2.5% y/y.

A 0.2% q/q official contraction rate was also provided for 3Q24 while the 2Q24 figure was updated to a 0.2% q/q contraction from the previously stated 0.1% q/q growth.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

Technical recession

In September, when the 2Q24 data was released, bne Intellinews noted: “On November 29, TUIK is to release its 3Q24 data. A revision to minus 0.1% q/q for 2Q24 and minus 0.x% for 3Q24 would do the job when it comes to presenting a technical recession (negative official GDP growth figures in two consecutive quarters on a q/q basis).”

Since then,this publication has been reiterating that a technical recession was on cards with the 3Q GDP release.

Odds shorten on December kick-off for easing cycle

The next meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Turkey’s central bank is scheduled for December 26.

As things stand, the possibility that the rate-setters will launch their awaited rate-cutting cycle at the meeting has gained ground with the announcement of the technical recession.

On November 21, at its last meeting, the authority kept its policy rate unchanged at 50% for an eighth straight month in line with market expectations.

Key markets around the world will still be on their Christmas break come December 26. Dealing with  immediate impacts of a rate cut would therefore be  easier for Turkey's economic officials.

On December 3, TUIK will release official inflation for November. A 1.6% m/m inflation release for November would mean a 46% annual inflation figure, providing the space for a rate cut.

Above 3% for 2024

In September, the Erdogan regime revised down its official GDP growth release target for 2024 to 3.5% y/y in its new medium-term economic programme (OVP) from the 4% stated in the previous programme published in September 2023.

At end-February, TUIK will release its 4Q24 and 2024 data.