Uzbekistan's green energy strategy aims to position the country as a regional clean energy leader. However, Sergey Sukhankin, senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, warns that realising the potential to make this a reality is challenging.

The Central Asian country’s plans to enhance the share of green energy in its portfolio, export surplus electricity to neighbouring countries and capitalise on its renewable resources have been met with enthusiasm from investors in China, the Gulf region and the European Union. 

However, deep-seated domestic issues—such as corruption, inefficiencies in resource management and climate volatility that produces big difficulties such as sandstorms—raise questions about whether Uzbekistan can fully harness its considerable green energy potential. 

As Sukhankin writes, “Given Uzbekistan's vast but largely untapped potential in this sector, Tashkent's initiative has been positively received internationally, with investors from China, the Gulf region and the European Union expressing readiness to provide financial resources and technical expertise. However, despite growing international interest and the political elite's professed commitment, certain domestic challenges have led experts to question Uzbekistan's capacity to fully realise its considerable green energy potential.”

In November, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement at the World Leaders Climate Action Summit in Baku. The deal focuses on the production and transmission of green energy with Uzbekistan set to export renewable electricity to Europe through Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan by 2030. 

This initiative is expected to increase Uzbekistan's energy production and improve regional cooperation in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. 

“Uzbekistan is strategically positioned to develop its green energy potential, benefiting from a surplus of inexpensive labour and over 320 sunny days annually. Studies indicate that Uzbekistan possesses the most promising wind and solar energy potential in Central Asia,” Sergey Sukhankin noted in his writing. 

By 2027, Uzbekistan plans to build 12 thermal power plants in regions including Bukhara, Tashkent and Khorezm, adding nearly 50bn kWh to its energy production. 

This initiative will be implemented through public-private partnerships (PPPs), primarily funded by foreign investments. 

Additionally, Uzbekistan's green energy efforts offer an opportunity to strengthen ties with other Central Asian countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which depend on hydropower.

Uzbekistan’s green energy strategy aims to reduce dependence on natural gas and lower environmental impacts. By late 2024, solar and wind plants in the country generated 4.5bn kWh of electricity, conserving 1.36bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas and preventing 1.89mn tonnes of emissions. 

Following the geopolitical shifts stemming from Russia's actions in Ukraine, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasised that Uzbekistan plans to produce 13bn kWh of green electricity—far exceeding domestic needs—and intends to export surplus power, offering Europe a reliable alternative energy source. 

Uzbekistan's collaboration with the EU goes beyond energy with the EU showing interest in the country’s critical metals. This aligns with Uzbekistan's goal to diversify exports and reduce reliance on China positioning the country as a key supplier of essential resources to Europe. 

Uzbekistan is also seeking to strengthen relationships with Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have advanced technological capabilities and a non-interventionist approach to Central Asia. 

Gulf corporations such as ACWA Power (Saudi Arabia) and Masdar (UAE) are already active in the country’s green energy sector, helping to bridge gaps in financing and technology. These partnerships are expected to reduce Uzbekistan's dependence on traditional power players in Central Asia, such as Russia and China. 

“For Uzbekistan, access to the Gulf's financial and technological resources addresses a critical need, enabling it to navigate the complex dynamics between Russia, China and the EU—traditional power players in Central Asia. Moreover, if Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan cooperation in green energy proves successful, Uzbekistan could leverage these Gulf partnerships to diversify its foreign economic policy more effectively and enhance its regional and global strategic position,” Sukhankin notes.

Nevertheless, Uzbekistan faces challenges, including corruption and inefficiencies in resource management. Corruption is present in the energy sector with reports revealing structural issues and a lack of innovation in the power grid, affecting progress.

The high cost of producing green energy is another challenge for Uzbekistan. While green energy is prioritised in Western countries, it remains economically unfeasible in Uzbekistan unless production costs are reduced. Achieving economies of scale in renewable energy production will require significant technological and cost-related improvements.

Lastly, Uzbekistan's increasingly arid climate presents a long-term risk to its green energy strategy. The country is already facing sandstorms and other environmental factors that disrupt solar and wind energy systems. 

“If these trends persist, they could undermine Uzbekistan's ability to achieve economies of scale, a key factor for reducing costs through the mass production of green energy. This climatic volatility poses a significant risk to the long-term viability of Uzbekistan's green energy ambitions,” Sukhankin stated.