Venezuelan opposition unveils plan to revive economy and rejoin global markets

Venezuelan opposition unveils plan to revive economy and rejoin global markets
Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven crude reserves, but its oil industry suffers from a chronic lack of maintenance and investment. The opposition plans to jumpstart the country's recovery by reviving oil and gas production. / bne IntelliNews
By José G. Marquez in Buenos Aires August 13, 2024

Venezuela's opposition has presented a comprehensive economic proposal aimed at revitalising the country's battered economy.

The plan, initially developed by María Corina Machado and now championed by opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, outlines a strategy for rapid economic recovery and reintegration into the global financial system, as reported by independent outlet El Estímulo.

The proposal, dubbed "expansive stabilisation," is the brainchild of a team of prominent economists including Sary Levy, Rafael de la Cruz, and Gustavo García.

It aims to simultaneously stabilise and grow the cash-strapped nation’s economy at an accelerated pace, a necessity in what economist Asdrúbal Oliveros describes as a "dwarf economy."

Central to the plan is Venezuela's reintegration into global financial markets. This involves restructuring the country's $160bn debt through a combination of long-term sustainability measures and an innovative debt-for-equity swap programme tied to a massive privatisation initiative.

The strategy also calls for rebuilding relationships with international financial institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank.

The opposition's short to medium-term vision includes a leaner, more efficient state achieved through widespread privatisation, particularly in sectors such as energy, water, telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure.

However, the plan also advocates for a robust government role in key areas, including a professional army and an autonomous central bank.

Contrary to traditional austerity measures, the proposal recommends expanded public spending to jumpstart the economy.

This approach aims to address Venezuela's sky-high poverty rates through large-scale investments in infrastructure and public services, funded by multilateral support and an extensive privatisation programme.

A cornerstone of such an economic strategy is the revitalisation of Venezuela's ailing energy sector.

The plan envisions rapid recovery of oil and gas production, positioning the country – which hosts the world’s largest proven crude reserves but whose oil industry suffers from a chronic lack of maintenance and investment – as a stable and reliable energy supplier for the Americas.

This ambitious goal hinges on a broad privatisation of the state-run oil company PDVSA and the creation of a legal framework to attract long-term foreign investment.

According to local media, market reactions to the opposition's potential victory are already visible.

Venezuelan bonds, particularly those of PDVSA, are attracting interest from strategic investors.

Firms like William Blair & Co. and Gramercy Funds Management are betting on these assets, currently trading at just 11 cents on the dollar, in anticipation of debt renegotiation under a new government led by the opposition.

Still, economists caution that Caracas' long-running economic woes will not just disappear overnight.

Oliveros notes that the outcome of the disputed election will determine the pace of recovery, with the relaxation of sanctions, engagement with multilateral organisations, and debt restructuring poised to play a key role in the country's economic future.

Most crucially, the success of this ambitious strategy – a stark departure from the Maduro administration’s policies – will depend on political legitimacy and international recognition of the election results.

President Nicolas Maduro's re-election on July 28 is being fiercely contested, with opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez claiming victory based on tally sheets showing him winning 67% of the votes. Despite mounting pressure from Western countries and former allies such as Colombia and Brazil, the government-aligned National Electoral Council (CNE) has yet to publish detailed results to substantiate the official results, citing a cyberattack on their system.

News

Dismiss