Ecuador's presidential election on February 9 has produced a tight race between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and main challenger Luisa González, laying bare the nation's deep political divisions amid mounting security challenges. While Noboa led with 44.5% of the vote, González remained hot on his heels, commanding a 43.86% share according to preliminary results from the National Electoral Council (CNE).

At 37 years old, centre-right Noboa represents a new generation of Ecuadorian leadership, being the country’s youngest president in history. He served a reduced term after winning the November 2023 snap election, which former President Guillermo Lasso called after dissolving the legislative body to avoid impeachment.

With a business administration degree from New York University and three master's degrees from Harvard, Northwestern, and George Washington Universities, Noboa founded an events company at just 18 years of age. He has held management positions in his family's Noboa Corp., a conglomerate built on Ecuador's flourishing banana trade.

The conservative millionaire began his political career just over three years ago, winning a seat in the National Assembly in 2021 before his surprise ascension to the presidency in 2023, beating none other than González herself in the snap election.

Under his brief 16-month presidency, Noboa has prioritised tackling Ecuador's security crisis. The results have been remarkable, with the homicide rate dropping from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 in 2024 as per official government figures. “I think that the citizens for the most part recognise his effort to improve security,” security consultant Hugo Acero stated as quoted by AP.

In fact, Noboa’s Interior Minister Mónica Palencia claimed that former US President Donald Trump's recent policy announcements mirror strategies already implemented by the Ecuadorian government.

“Only when you do things well does the most powerful country in the world come and copy them. Confirmation, Daniel Noboa,” Palencia posted on X, referring to Noboa’s security agenda.

His main contender, leftist 47-year-old Luisa González, brings a different set of expertise to the race.

González's educational background includes legal studies at the International University of Ecuador and master's degrees from both the Institute of Higher National Studies in Ecuador and the Complutense University of Madrid.

Her career path underwent a significant evolution, from working at UniBanco in Quito (2002-2003) to holding various positions in the government of controversial former President Rafael Correa, who ruled from 2007 to 2017 and presently lives in exile in Belgium to evade an eight-year prison sentence for graft. Interestingly, she began her political career with the right-wing Social Christian Party before shifting left to join Correa's movement,

In 2023, González rose to national fame as she was elected the president of Correa's Citizen Revolution party.

González’s campaign centres on her advocacy for increased social spending, promising to re-introduce popular social programmes from the Correa presidency. She also vowed to use $2.5bn from the country’s international reserves to boost the economy and invest in public infrastructure.

While Correa is fiscally conservative and González supports increased public spending, the pair converge when it comes to their shared prioritisation of combating crime in Ecuador. Security concerns dominated the agenda in the run-up to the February 9 elections, with Noboa lauding his administration's security achievements, including a claimed 15% reduction in violent deaths in 2024 and decreased prison violence, following his decrees to deploy military forces and designate 22 criminal organisations as terrorist groups.

In contrast, González criticised these measures while proposing her own security strategy, which combines military operations with social spending in violent areas.

“I will defend at all costs my country's democracy, which today is at risk,” González stated in a social media post. “He's broken the rule of law; he's violated the constitution and the law,” she declared.

The close result highlights Ecuador's political polarisation and contrasting approaches to its drug trafficking-fueled security crisis, which has turned the country from one of the region's safest to the most violent in recent years. With such a narrow margin between candidates, April's run-off will determine the country's direction.