The European Union's effort to incorporate the Western Balkans has been mired in delays, primarily due to political disinterest among EU member states and insufficient progress by Balkan countries in meeting accession criteria, according to a report by the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel. While the Ukraine conflict has renewed the focus on EU enlargement, significant challenges remain.

The Western Balkans countries, comprising Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, have long sought EU membership. To date, however, only Croatia has successfully joined the EU, in 2013. The Bruegel report notes: "Others are stuck in various stages of the accession process, with poor chances of completing it soon. The responsibility for the slow pace of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans can be shared between incumbent EU member countries and the candidates/potential candidates."

Montenegro leads the group in the candidacy process but still faces a long road ahead. Serbia trails Montenegro, while Albania, Bosnia and North Macedonia have only just started accession talks. Kosovo, meanwhile, is still a potential candidate, hindered by its need for formal candidate status and the recognition of its independence by all EU member states.

The initial phase of accession involves negotiating, signing, and ratifying Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAAs) between the EU and each country. North Macedonia and Croatia completed this early, while others took longer. In many cases, the free trade sections of the SAAs went into effect sooner because they only required approval by the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, as evidenced in Bosnia.

Western Balkan countries typically submitted their EU membership applications shortly after their SAAs took effect, or even before, as in the cases of Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia. However, the wait for the EU to grant candidate status ranged widely, from one year (for Croatia and North Macedonia) to six years (for Bosnia).

Historically, achieving candidate status meant the start of membership negotiations. Turkey was the first to experience a delay between these milestones: it became a candidate in 1999 but only began negotiations in 2005. Later, “for the Western Balkan candidates, such a split became the norm," according to Bruegel’s analysis.

North Macedonia achieved candidate status in December 2005, yet the Council of the EU delayed the start of accession talks until July 2020, despite numerous favourable recommendations from the European Commission. The first Intergovernmental Conference was further postponed by two years due to issues with the Council's approval of a negotiation agenda.

Albania faced similar delays, waiting five years for candidate status after applying in 2009 and another six years until July 2020 for negotiations to formally start. Talks officially began two years later, in July 2022.

In contrast, decisions regarding Montenegro and Serbia were made more quickly, allowing them to start negotiations in 2012 and 2014 respectively. However, progress has stalled for both. By June 2024, Montenegro had opened all 33 negotiation chapters, with only three provisionally closed. The June 2024 Accession Conference noted substantial progress in rule of law chapters, which could accelerate Montenegro's accession if these chapters are closed soon.

Serbia, as of December 2021, has opened 22 negotiation chapters but, like Montenegro, has only provisionally closed two chapters (science and research, education and culture).

Generally, the Western Balkan accession process has progressed more slowly compared to the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. The report says: "The responsibility for disappointing progress should be shared between EU member countries and Western Balkan applicants." EU member countries lost their political appetite for further enlargement in the 2010s and early 2020s.

The Revised Enlargement Methodology (REM) adopted by the EU in 2020 effectively delayed the negotiation process for over a year. According to Bruegel, France's insistence on adopting the REM postponed the decision to open accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia in October 2019. Despite the REM's potential benefits, time was needed to negotiate, approve and implement it.

Another issue is the veto wielded by EU members. "There were instances where veto power was abused. As long as all enlargement-related decisions require the unanimity of all member states, the common EU attitude will be determined by the most reluctant countries." North Macedonia has suffered the most from such practices. For over a decade, Greece blocked the start of its EU accession negotiations, demanding that North Macedonia change its name. This veto also prevented North Macedonia from joining Nato. After the Prespa Agreement in 2018 Bulgaria then raised a new set of issues and imposed a new veto. In June 2022, following EU pressure, the Bulgarian parliament lifted its veto, allowing talks to begin. However, the dispute continues, and Bulgaria demands constitutional changes from North Macedonia.

At the same time as the issues from the EU side, “On the other hand, Western Balkan countries can be blamed for disappointing progress or even backtracking in the critical areas of democratic institutions, civil freedoms, minority rights, fair elections, the rule of law, reform of the judiciary and public administration, fighting corruption, and organised crime," says the report. 

It adds: "The legacy of violent ethnic conflicts, which accompanied the collapse of the former Yugoslav federation in the 1990s, is another obstacle to further progress in accession negotiation for some countries."

For Serbia and Kosovo to join the EU, normalising relations is crucial, including Serbia's recognition of Kosovo's independence. Currently, Kosovo cannot attain EU candidate status because five EU member states do not recognise it as an independent country. 

Meanwhile, Bosnia’s fragile and ineffective constitutional framework, a remnant of the Dayton Agreement of 1995, also needs significant reforms for EU accession.

The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to prioritise new potential members from Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. These countries advanced swiftly in their EU accession status, with Ukraine and Moldova granted candidate status in June 2023 and Georgia following in December.

This shift alarmed Western Balkan nations, fearing they would be overshadowed. The EU responded by reinvigorating stalled accession talks, granting Bosnia candidate status in December 2022 and starting negotiations in March 2024. Albania and North Macedonia also saw movement, with negotiations starting in July 2022.

The EU also proposed a new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, allocating €6bn for 2024-2027. The EU's approach is designed to accelerate the integration of Balkan candidates into the Single European Market, providing both financial incentives and strategic support.

Going forward, the path to enlargement will require sustained commitment from both the EU and aspiring member states.