The Armenian government remains hopeful of a peace deal with Azerbaijan, following recent talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev in Kazan. 

Arayik Harutyunyan, Pashinyan's chief of staff, echoed the premier's claims that some 80-90% of the draft peace treaty had progressed, describing recent meetings as "positive in terms of dialogue". He expressed confidence that an agreement could be reached soon, as both countries have instructed their foreign ministers to accelerate negotiations on a treaty on "peace and interstate relations". 

"Undoubtedly, we want all these processes that have been initiated and the signing of a peace agreement to become a reality in the near future. I think such contacts are useful," said Harutiunyan.

While Armenia favours signing on the basis of points already agreed and leaving aside unresolved issues, Baku has resisted this approach, insisting on a fully-fledged agreement – in particular, recognition of Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and amendments to the Armenian constitution, which still contains references to Nagorno-Karabakh. 

However, according to RFE/RL's Armenian Service sources, Pashinyan and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told their political allies on 25 October that some progress had been made in Kazan on points of the draft treaty where the sides remain at odds.

Despite recent optimism, the peace process has been plagued by periodic setbacks and shifting positions in recent months. On 4 October, during a speech in Jabrayil, Aliyev appeared to put the talks on hold by warning Armenia not to rearm to reverse its losses in 2020.

His remarks were also directed at the United States and Western countries, in particular US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after pro-Armenian US lawmakers called for sanctions against Azerbaijan. Aliyev called the lawmakers' letter an "insult" and accused Washington of "double-dealing" by supporting peace efforts while allowing anti-Azerbaijani actions. 

At the time, officials in Yerevan questioned Azerbaijan's commitment to the Alma-Ata Declaration, which forms the basis for border demarcation and peace terms, and accused Baku of abandoning the peace process. There has been no official response from Baku, but Azerbaijani foreign ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizade criticised Armenia's statements as disingenuous and played down Armenia's claims of defensive rearmament.

The Kazan talks, held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, follow nearly a year of shaky negotiations between Pashinyan and Aliyev. The two leaders have agreed to focus on transit and border issues, including the proposed Zangezur corridor – a controversial route linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via the Armenian province of Syunik. Armenia opposes foreign supervision of the route, preferring Armenian customs control, while Azerbaijan wants a more direct link.

However, the hottest issue in the talks over the past year has been Azerbaijan's demand to amend the Armenian constitution, specifically the preamble to the 1991 Declaration of Independence, which contains a reference to the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. The Armenian leadership has denied Baku's claims that the main law of Armenia has territorial claims on Azerbaijan and has announced no plans to change its constitution until at least 2027.