EXCLUSIVE: Iran hedging bets on Trump or Harris victory in 2024

EXCLUSIVE: Iran hedging bets on Trump or Harris victory in 2024
/ bne IntelliNews
By bne Tehran bureau October 31, 2024

Iran is preparing contingency plans for both a potential Trump return to the White House and a possible Harris administration, a source close to the Iranian foreign ministry told bne IntelliNews on October 28.

The Iranian leadership is actively exploring ways to engage with a potential second Trump presidency, seeking to better understand his campaign's demands on nuclear issues - a key stumbling block during Trump's first term, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

"Unlike last time, Tehran wants to understand Trump's specific requirements for a deal before any potential negotiations," the source said.

The source said that Tehran is using regional intermediaries including the Omanis and Qataris to pass messages to the outgoing US administration's vice presidency.

"The Harris team is a very different from the Biden team," another source close to decision makers in Tehran said. 

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a key intermediary in these discussions between Tehran and Washington, sources say. The kingdom's recent rapprochement with Iran suggests Riyadh is prioritising regional economic growth and stability over traditional rivalries, despite ongoing differences over Israel.

These back-channel discussions indicate Tehran is seeking to maintain diplomatic options regardless of the US election outcome, even as public rhetoric remains confrontational. The talks come amid mounting regional tensions following recent exchanges with Israel and uncertainty about future US sanctions policy.

Saudi officials declined to comment on their potential role in facilitating discussions between Iran and the United States.

The change in tone from the Iranian government’s position comes as Asian diplomats in Tehran confirmed that they have seen a change in tone from the foreign ministry in recent months, despite not seeing major changes in policy.

“Yes, they have been more open to future negotiations with the West, but I think this is in part due to the ongoing issue between Iran and Israel.”

Earlier on October 28, a former foreign minister and advisor to the country’s supreme leader’s office, Ali Akbar Velayati spoke with the Financial Times of London that the country was “reassessing” its foreign policy to enable better relations between Tehran and countries including the European nations.

“The Islamic Republic is open to co-operation with any western state that seeks genuine interaction with Iran, provided it respects Iran’s sovereignty and treats us as an equal,”  said to the British daily.

“We are actively redefining a new balance in relations with western, eastern and developing countries. We welcome friendship with any country, from Europe to Asia or Africa.”

This official line, despite not officially suggesting a potential softening of its stance against the US, is part of the wider change in direction in the Tehran leadership’s stance since the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian in the summer. Part of the Pezeshkian campaign’s winning tactics was to promise citizens of Iran that they would seek better relations and ease pressure on the country’s economy including renegotiating a successive agreement to the JCPOA.

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