Ahead of India’s Aero India defence expo, Russia’s state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport revealed that total military exports to India have reached $80bn, marking a significant milestone in decades of defence cooperation. According to a statement by Rosoboronexport’s Director General, contracts signed between the two countries between 1947 and 2005 amounted to $30bn, and $50bn between 2005 and 2025, underscoring Moscow’s enduring role in equipping the Indian Armed Forces.

Yet, despite these figures, India’s reliance on Russian military hardware is steadily eroding as geopolitical shifts, logistical challenges, and diversification efforts reshape its defence strategy.

A legacy of dependence facing disruptions

For decades, Russia has been India’s primary defence supplier, providing everything from fighter jets and submarines to missile systems and helicopters.

The Indian Air Force’s Su-30MKI fleet, the Navy’s Talwar-class frigates, and the Army’s T-90 tanks are all products of long-standing defence ties. Even recent high-profile acquisitions, such as the S-400 air defence system, have reinforced Moscow’s place in India’s military arsenal. However, this dominance is facing mounting challenges. The war in Ukraine has severely disrupted Russian defence production, delaying deliveries of critical equipment and spare parts. Western sanctions have further constrained Moscow’s ability to fulfil export orders, forcing India to reassess the sustainability of its reliance on Russian arms.

India’s shift towards diversification

New Delhi has been gradually reducing its dependence on Moscow by broadening its military procurement sources. The acquisition of French Rafale multi role fighter jets, American P-8i maritime patrol aircraft, and Israeli drones signals a shift towards a more balanced mix of suppliers.

Additionally, India’s “Make in India” initiative has prioritised domestic defence production, with indigenous fighter jets, missile systems, and warships taking centre stage in modernisation plans. This shift is not merely a response to Russia’s supply chain constraints but also a strategic recalibration. By diversifying its defence partnerships, India aims to reduce vulnerabilities, enhance technological capabilities, and avoid overexposure to any single supplier—especially one increasingly entangled in geopolitical turmoil.

The war in Ukraine: a turning point?

As a 2024 report by RE: Russia which is supported by the Zimin Foundation argues, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on its defence exports has been profound. With its own military requiring urgent replenishment, Moscow has struggled to meet export commitments. Reports of Russian equipment failures on the battlefield have also raised concerns within Indian military circles about the reliability of certain systems. At the same time, India’s continued purchases of Russian weapons have drawn scrutiny from Western allies, particularly the United States.

While Washington has refrained from sanctioning India over its S-400 deal, it has ramped up pressure to reduce engagement with Russian arms manufacturers. The promise of advanced technology transfers from the US and Europe has further incentivised India to pivot away from Moscow.

Rosoboronexport’s fight to retain market share

Despite the growing obstacles, Rosoboronexport is aggressively working to maintain its foothold in the Indian market. The company has been promoting new-generation fighter jets, submarines, and air defence systems while offering joint development opportunities to keep India engaged.

The Su-57 fifth-generation fighter and advanced helicopter models are among the key products being showcased to Indian officials. One of Russia’s biggest advantages remains its willingness to share critical defence technologies—an area where Western suppliers are often more restrictive. India has traditionally favoured agreements that allow for local assembly and technology transfers, making Russian offers attractive even as alternatives emerge.

A gradual, not absolute, break

As data from a report from SIPRI in 2024 indicates, India has been unmistakably moving away from a Russia-centric defence strategy, however the transition is far from complete. Russian-origin platforms still constitute a significant portion of India’s military assets, necessitating continued cooperation for maintenance, spare parts, and upgrades.

The key question is whether Russia can remain a competitive and reliable supplier in the face of economic sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and battlefield setbacks. While India’s long-term trajectory suggests declining Russian dominance, the process is evolving at a measured pace. As a result, Moscow’s role in India’s defence ecosystem, though diminished, is unlikely to vanish overnight.