Russia's birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since the late 18th century, intensifying a long-standing demographic crisis with significant economic, social and geopolitical consequences. 

According to the Federal State Statistics Service (RosStat), only 195,400 children were born during the first two months of 2025, marking a 3% year-on-year decline. Based on published birth certificates, independent demographer Alexey Raksha estimated that a further 95,000 to 96,000 births occurred in March, resulting in fewer than 294,000 births in the first quarter of the year.

“March 2025 likely set a record for the lowest number of births on the current territory of the Russian Federation since the late 18th to early 19th century,” Raksha wrote.

While many developed countries are facing ageing populations, Russia's situation is exacerbated by persistently high mortality rates and the lingering impact of the post-Soviet collapse. The upheaval of the 1990s led to a sharp decline in births, and despite partial recovery in the early 2000s, fertility has remained below replacement levels. The current fertility rate stands at 1.431 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. Compounding the issue, the number of women of reproductive age has declined significantly due to the demographic trough of the 1990s.

Although mortality fell by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, natural population decline continues. Analysts warn that Russia’s total population could sink to between 130mn and 138.8mn by 2046, figures comparable to the Russian Empire’s population in 1897.

State efforts to counteract the trend, including financial incentives, restrictive abortion policies and pro-natalist campaigns, have had limited success. Programmes such as the maternity capital scheme and allowances for pregnant schoolgirls have not sufficiently mitigated structural challenges such as high female employment, constrained healthcare access and the rising cost of raising children.

RosStat forecasts annual births could drop to 1.14mn by 2027. By the mid-2040s, children and adolescents may account for just 14.2% of the population, while 27% will be pensioners. The resulting demographic imbalance is projected to place growing pressure on pensions, healthcare and national defence infrastructure. The number of draft-age men may decline by up to 40% by 2050, raising concerns over future military readiness.