Azerbaijan has launched a large-scale security operation, Border Shield, along its northern frontier with Russia, aiming to combat transnational organised crime, terrorism and illicit arms and drug trafficking. 

Officials frame Border Shield as part of routine law enforcement efforts, but its timing raises geopolitical questions. The initiative follows a period of growing tensions between Baku and Moscow, with analysts suggesting that Azerbaijan is increasingly frustrated with Russia’s approach to regional issues, particularly its stance on Armenia. 

A recent bne IntelliNews analysis pointed to a cooling in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, with Baku viewing Moscow’s policies as insufficiently aligned with its own interests. In this context, the border operation could be interpreted as a signal of Azerbaijan's willingness to assert greater control over its security environment, independent of Russian oversight.

The operation, running from February 3-10, is being conducted across the northern districts of Quba, Gusar, Khachmaz, Balakan, Zagatala, Gakh, Sheki, Oguz and Gabala, with police checkpoints set up in key areas. According to Azerbaijan’s state news agency AzərTAc, the operation is based on agreements reached between the Azerbaijani and Russian foreign ministers on enhancing border cooperation.

While Azerbaijani authorities insist that Border Shield is a standard security operation, its scale and objectives indicate a broader agenda. The operation aims to identify and neutralise members of transnational organised crime groups and terrorist organisations, disrupt smuggling routes for weapons, explosives, and narcotics and prevent illicit financial flows that could support criminal and extremist activities. Given the geopolitical backdrop, some observers see it as part of Baku’s strategy to reinforce its sovereignty over border areas at a time when relations with Russia are increasingly uncertain.

Reports initially suggested that border checkpoints had been established, prompting speculation about movement restrictions in the region. However, the Azerbaijani interior ministry denied such claims, stating that Border Shield does not involve setting up permanent roadblocks and is instead focused on intelligence-sharing and coordinated law enforcement actions.

October counterterrorism operation in Gusar revealed

The security clampdown follows the belated disclosure of a counterterrorism operation that took place in October 2024 in the Gusar district. Azerbaijan’s State Security Service and interior ministry dismantled a radical extremist network allegedly linked to international terrorist organisations. The group had reportedly been preparing attacks and had set up underground hideouts in remote forested areas near the villages of Khil, Jibir, and Yasab — located only 5 kilometres away from the Russian border.

During the operation, several militants were killed after engaging in armed resistance against security forces, while others were arrested. Law enforcement officers seized a significant cache of weapons, including Kalashnikov rifles, explosives and remote-detonation devices, raising concerns about the extent of extremist activities in the region. Some of the militants had a history of involvement with terrorist groups, including the Forest Brothers, an extremist faction previously active in the Caucasus.

The fact that the operation was only publicly disclosed months later has fuelled speculation that Azerbaijani authorities are becoming more assertive in managing security threats independently, without seeking Russian support. This could reflect a shift in strategy, with Baku aiming to tighten control over security issues in its northern regions, where radical elements have been intermittently active.

Extremist threat resurfaces

One of the key concerns underlying Azerbaijan’s security operations is the reported resurgence of the Forest Brothers, a jihadist group originally active in Russia’s Dagestan region as part of the Caucasus Emirate’s Sharia Jamaat. The group had a history of launching attacks against law enforcement in both Dagestan and Azerbaijan, promoting extremist ideology and facilitating transnational militant activities.

Re-established in 2007 by Rappani Khalilov, the Forest Brothers was later led by Ilgar Mollachiyev, an Azerbaijani national who became the commander of the Derbent Jamaat before his death in 2008. Following the demise of subsequent leaders, the group was largely dismantled by 2016. However, new evidence suggests a connection between remnants of the group and the Islamic State (ISIS), with the organisation formally announcing its presence in Azerbaijan in 2023.

According to an Al-Naba report, ISIS declared its activities in Azerbaijan on September 14, 2023, and five days later, Azerbaijani security forces launched an operation against militants in Gusar. The operation reportedly led to the neutralisation of extremist fighters, some of whom had previously fought in Syria and Iraq. The group’s propaganda included references to Iranian leadership figures as enemies, indicating its broader ideological alignment with global jihadist movements.

Historically, Forest Brothers and associated militant networks have conducted high-profile attacks, including the 2008 bombing of the Abu Bakr mosque in Baku, which killed two and injured 18. The group had also planned to establish insurgent cells in Azerbaijan’s northern regions before being dismantled by the national security ministry in 2007-2008.

Geopolitical and regional security implications

The launch of Border Shield coincides with broader shifts in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. While Baku has long cooperated with Moscow on security matters, recent diplomatic frictions suggest it is now reassessing its reliance on Russia. 

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia rose in January following diplomatic exchanges over critical media reports and an unresolved investigation into a deadly air crash involving an Azerbaijani AZAL passenger plane in December. The plane crash, which resulted in 38 fatalities, led to accusations from Azerbaijan that Russia was concealing crucial information about the incident.

The timing of the Border Shield operation — coming just weeks after the tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia were publicly highlighted — suggests a more assertive approach by Azerbaijan in handling security challenges on its own terms.

With Azerbaijan increasingly diversifying its partnerships, including deepening ties with Turkey and Israel, and strengthening security cooperation with the West and in particular the US — Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is an admirer of Donald Trump, who also happens to be a personal friend of Aliyev's ex-son-in-law Emin Agalarov — Russia’s influence over Baku may be waning. 

A segment on Azerbaijani state broadcaster İctimai TV (Public TV) highlighted the deteriorating relationship, with anchor Nigar Sabirgizi stating that Azerbaijanis have not forgotten the historical lands ceded to Russia. While ruling out territorial claims, she said Baku sees value in reminding the world of historical facts. This was probably the first time a pro-government TV said that Derbent, a city with significant Azerbaijani population, was annexed by Russia in a hostile fashion. Such "reminders" are usually reserved for Armenia and Iran.

"Russia continues to ‘wrestle’ with Azerbaijan," Sabirgizi noted, pointing to Moscow’s failure to keep Yerevan under control during the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the region. She argued that Russia’s current hostile stance stems from Azerbaijan’s ability to remove Russian influence from its affairs, including blocking Moscow’s attempt to establish a consulate in Khankendi (known as Stepanakert to Armenians). 

"Baku-Moscow relations are at their most strained," she said, adding that Russia’s reluctance to acknowledge responsibility for the AZAL incident means that ties will not return to previous levels anytime soon.