The Central Bank of Azerbaijan has stopped publishing the results of its twice-weekly foreign exchange auctions, citing currency rate stability and sufficient market supply. 

The decision, effective since early March, marks a shift in the bank's communication policy as it reduces transparency around FX operations that were previously disclosed every Tuesday and Thursday.

The central bank governor, Taleh Kazimov, said the change stems from subdued activity in the auctions and consistent exchange rate levels, according to APA Economics. 

"As the exchange rate remains stable and the foreign currency demand of banks is fully met at the auctions, disclosing this information is no longer considered relevant," he said earlier. The bank will continue to publish monthly FX reserve data on its website. 

As of end-March 2025, the central bank’s foreign currency reserves stood at $11.026bn, an increase of $34.6mn from the previous month.

MP and member of the Economic Policy Committee Mushfig Jafarov defended the move, stating that monthly reserve disclosures still offer insights into the market. "This also allows the formation of an understanding about the currency market," Jafarov said, adding that "in the first two months of 2025, demand exceeded supply in only three of the first four auctions, while demand remained below supply in the following 12 sessions."

According to Jafarov, this trend likely continued in March, which, combined with reduced demand, contributed to reserve growth. "In the long term, there has been a steady increase in reserves. At the end of 2016, reserves stood at $4bn, and now they exceed $11bn," Jafarov noted. He also recalled that the central bank had previously notified the public when selling currency to finance government projects. "Given the bank’s track record of following through on public commitments, I believe it will continue to announce interventions in advance," he said.

Economist Khalid Karimli supported the central bank’s rationale, noting that FX auctions continue under normal procedures but without public disclosure. "The bank believes disclosing auction data is no longer necessary due to stable exchange rates and fully met demand," he said. 

Karimli linked the decision to behavioural economics. "If the public learns about increased FX demand in a given auction, it may cause unnecessary concern and drive artificial demand, even if no fundamental reason exists," he said.

He added that when demand is low, the central bank often steps in to purchase unsold currency from the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ), which leads to reserve accumulation. "In recent years, this pattern has visibly impacted reserve levels," he said. Karimli concluded that "the central bank now prefers to assess the currency market based on overall reserve trends rather than auction-by-auction results," considering the latter unnecessary to disclose.

However, other economists are not convinced. The move comes at a time when concerns over a potential devaluation of the manat are resurfacing, fuelled by falling oil production and geopolitical uncertainty. 

"There are devaluation expectations in the country," economist Rovshan Agayev told Pressklub.az. "The central bank’s refusal to reveal how much foreign currency it sells at auctions is evidence that these concerns are not groundless," he said. 

Agayev argued that the decision undermines transparency: "First of all, this violates the principle of transparency that a central bank must uphold. They should look at Turkey’s example, where the central bank publishes weekly data on reserves and the amount of currency sold to banks." According to him, the opacity seems intentional. "They are trying to keep experts and the media in the dark and reduce independent analysis of what’s happening in the FX market. Apparently, they think this will prevent panic," he added.

The criticism comes as global risks mount. US President Donald Trump’s tariff war announcements are widely expected to trigger indirect economic shocks across emerging markets, including Azerbaijan. "The risk of a global recession is significantly higher now," Agayev said. "In such conditions, the hardest-hit countries will be those with undiversified economies, high dependence on resource revenues, and primitive production structures. Azerbaijan is one of those countries," he added, noting that over 92% of its exports are hydrocarbons. 

If energy prices fall in response to a global slowdown, the fiscal and currency pressures on the Azerbaijani economy could become severe. "In a phase where oil output is already declining annually, any drop in prices will inevitably lead to a weaker manat," Agayev warned.

The lack of disclosure has reignited memories of the 2015 twin devaluations, when the manat lost over half its value. At the time, the central bank had spent billions trying to defend the exchange rate before suddenly abandoning it. The fallout was catastrophic — many borrowers defaulted, banks collapsed, and the economy suffered long-term damage. Some macro indicators have yet to recover fully. 

Economist Ilham Shaban believes the central bank’s silence stems from fear of public backlash: "When the bank publishes auction results, it sees how much negative commentary it generates. The public reacts — people rush to buy dollars, convert deposits, or stash cash under mattresses." But he argues the problem runs deeper. "Officials don’t speak to the public consistently. The government relies on its preferred experts to manage the narrative, but they fail to gain public trust," he said in an interview with Pressklub.

Critics argue that the central bank's reasoning is dangerous. "Depriving the public of timely data is not a solution to structural economic problems," said Agayev. "The government must prepare for the next crisis. Withholding data on dollar sales won’t help," he concluded.