As EU countries announced the symbolic start of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on June 25, Hungarian diplomats had already signalled the country’s upcoming EU Council presidency will involve a shift in emphasis towards enlargement to the Western Balkans and away from Ukraine. 

However, Hungary’s allies in the region — Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska and the new government in North Macedonia — have already taken actions that have caused other EU member states to question their commitment to EU values, meaning there may be little Budapest can do to advance their causes. 

Serbia has refused to join sanctions on Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, as well as holding elections in December 2023 that were widely criticised by officials from Germany in particular. 

Top politicians from Bosnia’s Republika Srpska have advocated for the entity’s secession, as well as maintaining ties with Russia. They have also been criticised for holding up reforms needed for the country’s EU accession progress. 

Meanwhile, the new rightwing government in North Macedonia has already antagonised EU members Greece and Bulgaria with its nationalist approach. 

The country Hungary may be able to support is Montenegro, currently the frontrunner in the EU accession process. However, after the appointment of a new pro-EU government and president, the small country is once again wracked by political divisions following a falling out between the ruling Europe Now (PES) party and its former deputy leader, President Jakov Milatovic. 

Budapest’s priorities 

That means the Hungarian EU Council presidency’s objective of “meaningful progress” on EU accession may be defeated before the presidency starts on July 1. 

“Enlargement is one of the most successful policies of the European Union. To preserve this favourable tendency, it is essential to keep enlargement policy merit-based, balanced and credible,” says the list of priorities published on the Hungarian EU Council presidency website. 

“The European Union has long been engaged in ensuring a European perspective for the Western Balkans, as the Community cannot be complete without the accession of this region. The region’s integration benefits the EU in economic, security and geopolitical terms. To further broaden and deepen our cooperation, we will invite our partners to consultations both in the framework of the EU-Western Balkans Summit and the European Political Community,” it adds. 

Some of the presidency’s other priorities include establishing a new European Competitiveness Deal, strengthening European defence policies, curbing illegal migration and shaping the future direction of EU cohesion policy. 

Reiterating the need for a “merit-based” enlargement strategy earlier this month, Hungary’s European Affairs Minister Janos Boka gave more detail on what this might mean for specific countries, as reported by Balkan Insight. 

The objectives include launching a new cluster of chapters with Serbia, completing the majority of chapters with Montenegro, and organising an intergovernmental conference with North Macedonia and Albania. 

At the same time, Hungarian officials have indicated little progress can be expected on Ukraine’s accession process. 

Although — under pressure from fellow members of the bloc — Hungary is no longer obstructing the start of accession talks with Ukraine, the government anticipates no substantial steps such as the opening of chapters, during its presidency.

That makes the formal launch of negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova a largely symbolic move. It will, in any case, be followed by the lengthy process of screening their legislation for compliance with EU law. 

Controversial presidency 

Hungary’s presidency of the bloc is a controversial one given its frequent clashes with Brussels over EU values and, more recently, policy towards Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. In the run-up to July 1 there was even discussion in some member states about potentially seeking to replace Hungary at the helm of the EU Council. 

Hungary’s permanent representative to the EU Balint Odor made clear at a briefing in Brussels on 18 June that after the initial intergovernmental conference with Ukraine and Moldova on June 25, no further conferences can be expected in the second half of the year, although the screening process for the two countries will continue.

Odor added, as reported by DW, that Budapest plans to “balance” EU enlargement by stepping up the process for the Western Balkans.

This followed even more enthusiastic comments made by Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó during a visit to Montenegro in March, when he talked of the “fresh energy” accession would bring to the EU. 

Szijjártó said that the economic and security challenges faced by the EU had thrown the bloc “negative spiral” that required a “fresh boost of energy from outside”. “This vital new energy can come from the ambitious, emerging, fast-growing states of the Western Balkans,” the foreign minister said. 

New candidates  

Three countries on the EU’s eastern periphery — Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — have been given EU candidate status since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Two of them, Moldova and Ukraine, have already been given the go-ahead for accession negotiations. 

This is in stark contrast to the extremely slow progress made by the Western Balkans countries, although there have been efforts to speed up the accession of the six states in the region since the invasion. 

Of the Western Balkan countries, just two — Montenegro and Serbia — are in the midst of the negotiation stage. Montenegro has opened all 33 chapters, of which three are provisionally closed. Serbia has opened 22 of its 35 chapters, of which two are closed. It faces the additional hurdle of normalising its relations with Kosovo as a condition for accession. 

Albania and North Macedonia were only given the green light for accession negotiation to start in 2022, despite being candidate countries since 2014 and 2005 respectively. 

For Albania, screening was completed in 2023, and the next step is expected to be the opening of the first negotiation cluster, which covers chapters on the judiciary, fundamental rights and justice. North Macedonia is still required to make changes to its constitution to include the Bulgarian minority if it is to advance to negotiations. The previous centre-left government failed to take this politically difficult step, and the new government led by VMRO-DPMNE says it wants to renegotiate with Bulgaria. 

Bosnia & Herzegovina was recently given candidate status, but Kosovo has been unable to do so as it is not recognised by five EU member states (one of them being Hungary). 

Friends in the region 

Of the six Western Balkan states, Serbia in particular enjoys strong ties with Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a close relationship with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, with both leaders referring to each other as “friends". This closeness intensified particularly in the past five years, coinciding with increased cooperation between Hungary and Serbia. 

Budapest has also developed its relationship with Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska and its controversial president, Milorad Dodik. Dodik has been sanctioned by the US for corruption and threatening the stability and territorial integrity of Bosnia. He also has close ties with Russia, and has visited Moscow several times since the invasion of Ukraine. 

Despite this, Hungary has supported the Bosnian Serb leadership, including though voting against a UN resolution establishing July 11 as an International Day in Remembrance of the Srebrenica genocide and stepping in to back energy projects in Republika Srpska after the German government stopped funding projects in the region due to Dodik’s secessionist policies.

Orban has praised leaders like Vucic and Dodik for their roles in regional stability, using this as justification for advocating fast-track enlargement towards the Balkans. As outlined in a paper by the European Policy Centre (EPC), his illiberal approach has inspired similar politics in the Western Balkans, and both Serbia and Bosnia have experienced a backsliding on democratic norms in the last decade. 

In 2023, MEPs called for an investigation into whether Hungarian Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi broke the European Commission’s code of conduct in his actions in the Western Balkans, specifically towards Bosnia and Serbia. A statement from the Socialists and Democrats pointed to reports that Várhelyi “consistently plays down Serbian President Vucic’s attacks on democracy and, allegedly, even assisted Milorad Dodik’s separatist actions in Bosnia and Herzegovina”. 

Nationalist shift in North Macedonia

Orban’s ruling Fidesz party also has ties with North Macedonia’s rightwing nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party, which recently made a comeback in the country’s general and presidential elections. 

Hungary provided asylum for VMRO-DPMNE’s former leader, ex-prime minister Nikola Gruevski, and has so far resisted efforts by Skopje to have him extradited to serve prison time for corruption. As Gruevski’s replacement at the helm of VMRO-DPMNE, Hristijan Mickoski, prepared to form a government, Orban congratulated him warmly and expressed his intention to develop bilateral ties with North Macedonia. 

However, efforts by Budapest to advance North Macedonia’s EU accession may already have been scuppered by the nationalist stance of the new guard in Skopje, which has led to threats by both Greece and Bulgaria to halt any progress. 

Both Mickoski and North Macedonia’s new Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova have made clear they are unhappy with the so-called ‘name deal’ under which the country’s name was changed from ‘Macedonia’ to ‘North Macedonia’. Mickoski has said he will use the old name, Macedonia, internally, claiming the new name, North Macedonia, is "shameful". Greece says this breaks the terms of the Prespa Agreement. 

Mickoski also said he wants to renegotiate the agreement with Bulgaria, which Sofia swiftly said was unacceptable. 

Given these issues, it is unclear what Budapest may be able to do to advance the causes of its allies in the region.