Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's grip over the country's conservative movement is weakening following the recent Supreme Court's decision to put him on trial for allegedly plotting a coup, as key allies distance themselves and potential successors emerge.

The criminal proceedings, decided last week by the court's first panel, have kickstarted the political right's search for alternatives ahead of the 2026 election, with polls suggesting governors Tarcísio de Freitas (São Paulo), Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais) and Ratinho Júnior (Paraná) could potentially challenge leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Valor reported.

"For the political elites, it is no longer established that the surname Bolsonaro is the silver bullet that conservatism needs to defeat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva," political analysts cited by Valor opined.

In a sign of fracturing support, Representative Carla Zambelli (from the Liberal Party PL, the same as Bolsonaro), once one of Bolsonaro's most vocal defenders, told Folha de S. Paulo newspaper she feels "abandoned" by the former president as she faces her own legal troubles.

"I expected support. Since 2013 I've supported Bolsonaro... I think I was one of the people most on the front line in Congress defending the government and the president," Zambelli said.

"I expected to have some kind of reciprocation... to count on his friendship in this difficult moment."

Legal woes mount

The Supreme Court recently formed a majority to sentence Zambelli to over five years in prison and loss of her mandate for pursuing a man with a drawn weapon on the eve of the 2022 election.

She disputes Bolsonaro's claim that the incident cost him the presidency, saying: "It was simply half a day. I don't think that many people changed their opinion regarding their vote."

When asked who could represent the right in 2026, Zambelli mentioned Michelle Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro as potential candidates, while expressing reservations about São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, whom she described as someone who "pleases” the left.

In a separate development offering some relief to the "Trump of the Tropics," Brazil's public prosecutor asked the Supreme Court on March 27 to drop a probe into the former president for allegedly falsifying COVID-19 vaccination certificates, saying the case was based "solely" on testimony from former aide Mauro Cid.

However, prosecutors stressed that this case "differs considerably" from the coup plot investigation, where "convincing, independent evidence has been produced” by the Federal Police.

If convicted in the coup case, Bolsonaro faces up to 40 years imprisonment. Even if acquitted, he remains barred from holding public office until 2030.

Voters dislike Bolsonaro and Lula

Meanwhile, Brazilian voters increasingly regret supporting both Lula and Bolsonaro, according to an opinion poll by the Travessia Institute published on Estadao over the weekend.

Lula supporters complain about rising food prices, poor wages, and the abandonment of trademark leftist policies, while Bolsonaro sympathisers condemn his prioritising personal interests, coup attempt, and pandemic mismanagement.

Participants described Lula as "tired" and "exhausted" while Bolsonaro seemed to most "arrogant" and "authoritarian," with a majority of respondents agreeing that both leaders should retire from politics.