CAUCASUS BLOG: Is it the end of the honeymoon between Azerbaijan and Russia?

CAUCASUS BLOG: Is it the end of the honeymoon between Azerbaijan and Russia?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has alleged that external interference in Russian airspace caused the December 25 crash of an AZAL aircraft near Aktau, Kazakhstan.
By Cavid Aga in Baku January 28, 2025

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have risen following diplomatic exchanges over critical media reports and an unresolved investigation into a deadly air crash involving an Azerbaijani passenger plane in December.

Russia and Azerbaijan have a complex relationship, with Azerbaijan mostly trying to balance cooperation and competition. While they are de facto and de jure allies in various sectors, including military collaboration in Karabakh with Russia performing peacekeeping until 2023, recent events have strained their ties. The plane crash, which resulted in 38 fatalities, led to accusations from Azerbaijan that Russia was concealing crucial information about the incident. 

Concurrently, Russia's relationship with Armenia has deteriorated since 2020's Karabakh war. Armenia has expressed dissatisfaction with the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO's) response to conflicts with Azerbaijan, leading to a perceived lack of support from Russia. This discontent has driven Armenia to seek closer ties with Western nations, including the European Union and the United States, aiming to diversify its security partnerships and reduce dependence on Russia.

On January 27, Russia summoned the new Azerbaijani ambassador Rahman Mustafayev to the foreign ministry in Moscow. During the meeting, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin expressed concern over what he called an "anti-Russian media campaign" in Azerbaijan and labelled reports critical of Russkiy Dom (Russian House) in Baku as “unsubstantiated". He stressed the importance of maintaining the strategic partnership and allied relations between the two countries.

The following day, Azerbaijan summoned Russian ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov to its foreign ministry in Baku. Azerbaijan cited disinformation in Russian media and certain official statements as undermining the Declaration on Allied Interaction signed three years ago. Azerbaijani officials reiterated their expectations for Russian cooperation in finalising the investigation into the December 25 crash of the AZAL aircraft near Aktau, Kazakhstan.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has alleged that external interference in Russian airspace caused the incident, leading to the plane’s emergency landing. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered condolences and apologies, Moscow has not accepted responsibility. Azerbaijan is demanding accountability and compensation.

The rift has been compounded by media reports aired on Azerbaijan’s pro-government Baku TV, which accused Russkiy Dom of conducting intelligence activities under the guise of cultural operations. Azerbaijan clarified that the programme did not reflect the government’s position but stressed the importance of reciprocity and compliance with domestic laws in the organisation’s activities.

Azerbaijani pro-government outlet Caliber.az, which is part of the same media holding as Baku TV, published an article defending the Baku TV video. The piece detailed accusations against Russkiy Dom, referencing its alleged role in intelligence operations and historical ties to Soviet and Russian spy networks. The article further criticised Russian interference in Azerbaijani internal matters and highlighted grievances over issues such as the closure of Azerbaijani diaspora organisations in Russia and perceived bias in Russian cultural and media policies.

The article provided historical context, linking Russkiy Dom to Rossotrudnichestvo, an agency tasked with expanding Russia’s "humanitarian" influence, and its Soviet predecessors, such as the Society of Cultural Relations with the Soviet Union (VOKS) and the Union of Soviet Societies for Friendship and Cultural Contacts (SSOD), which reportedly served as cover for KGB operations during the USSR era. The piece cited examples from other countries, including Denmark, where journalists allegedly uncovered evidence of Russian intelligence operatives working under the organisation’s umbrella, and several Eastern European states that have shut down Russian Houses over espionage concerns.

Caliber.az also criticised the anti-Azerbaijani stance of some Russian state-backed media, like Sputnik Armenia, and highlighted what it called Moscow’s "double standards”. It pointed out that while Azerbaijan allows robust Russian-language education and cultural initiatives, Russia has systematically dismantled Azerbaijani diaspora organisations, such as the All-Russian Azerbaijan Congress, which was disbanded in 2017.

The article tied these grievances to Russkiy Dom’s broader agenda, alleging its activities include fostering anti-Azerbaijani sentiment and promoting Armenian narratives. It specifically referenced past events hosted by Rossotrudnichestvo, such as a controversial 2021 exhibition in Moscow that equated the conflicts in Donbas and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The publication’s tone and depth of detail align with the Azerbaijani government’s apparent strategy of using state-aligned media to broadcast concerns over foreign influence while maintaining an official distance. Observers suggest that such outlets serve as vehicles to publicly highlight Azerbaijan’s grievances without directly implicating state authorities.

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani parliament's Commission on Foreign Interference and Hybrid Threats announced findings of its investigation into disinformation campaigns originating from a neighbouring state. The report revealed a network of over 300 social media accounts, including 124 on Facebook and 67 each on Instagram and Telegram, systematically disseminating harmful propaganda. The commission identified radical religious-ideological narratives aimed at sowing discord, polarising society, and undermining trust in state institutions.

While the commission’s findings did not explicitly name Russia or connect directly to the Russkiy Dom controversy, the timing of the report has led some analysts to speculate that it serves as another signal of the Azerbaijani government’s intent to expose and counter pro-Russian influence campaigns.

Dismiss