Czechia braces for regional and Senate elections this weekend on September 20-21 just as the water levels from the huge floods which hit the wider Central European region are receding.

The cabinet decided to go ahead with the elections despite the fact that many municipalities are still struggling with the aftermath of the floods, which claimed the lives of five people, while another eight are still missing.

“It is not just because the potential delay [of the elections] would be very complicated. It would pre-suppose particular steps, which we would have to make, with subsequent approval by the parliament – that alone would be complicated in terms of time,” Prime Minister Petr Fiala explained following an emergency cabinet session on September 16, adding that the state is capable of securing the elections in the flooded areas.

The Ministry of Interior is to secure provisional election tents in five municipalities unable to secure sufficient premises, and will assist in several others. “We will secure reception and electrical generators; we will make sure election rooms are serviced,” Minister of Interior Vit Rakusan was quoted as saying by Czech Television (CT) on September 19, adding that his ministry can also secure personnel driving with voting booths.

There are about 6,250 municipalities in Czechia and 14,000 voting districts, CT noted. Rakusan said earlier that elections in 35 municipalities are affected by the flooding.    

Although floods devastated some areas, such as the Jeseniky hills in the northeast of the country, the general consensus is that Czechia was much better prepared than during previous floods, in the years 1997, 2002 and 2013, and the frequent appearance of government politicians in the media could still help Fiala’s government, which has largely focused on international affairs at the expense of domestic issues.   

The elections will be a testing ground for the populist ANO party of billionaire ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babis, which is hoping to return to power in the national elections in 2025. Babis currently appears able to win a majority with potential partners from the far right and other populist Eurosceptic parties as Fiala's centre-right cabinet sleepwalks towards defeat next year.  

One-third of the 81 seats in the upper chamber of the parliament are up for grabs, as are regional governments in the 13 Czech regions except the capital, Prague, comprising altogether 675 councillors. Whatever the outcome of the Senate elections, Fiala’s five-party ruling coalition is set to keep a majority of the Senate, which is dominated by legislators who back Fiala’s government.  

Following the previous elections in 2020, ANO holds 178 seats in the regional governments, followed by Fiala's neoliberal ODS and its junior ruling coalition partner, the socially liberal Pirate Party, which hold 99 seats each.

Other ruling coalition parties, the centrist Mayors and Independents (STAN) and Christian Democratic KDU-CSL, have 91 and 53 deputies, respectively, while the non-parliamentary social democratic SOCDEM has 37 seats, the opposition far-right SPD 37, the ruling coalition centre-right TOP 09 has 19, and the non-parliamentary unreformed and nationalist Czech Communist Party (KSCM) has 13 seats.  

ANO is widely regarded as the favourite. It is the party's first election since it made a sharp turn to the far right when Babis became one of the co-founders of a new European Parliament grouping, Patriots for Europe, along with Hungarian radical right-wing leader Viktor Orban and far right Austrian FPO leader Herbert Kickl. They set up to fight the EU in late June, and  since then the Patriots have become the third largest group in the new European Parliament, with 83 deputies.      

ANO’s position in the national polls has remained unchallenged for well over a year, where it continuously registers popularity above 30%, more than double its main challengers, ODS and the Pirate Party, which have consistently registered around or slightly above 10%, and SPD and STAN, which also poll close to 10%. Other parties, including TOP 09, oscillate around the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament or collect seats in regional governments, while KDU-CSL’s popularity has fallen to around a mere 2%.

ANO is not the only opposition force which could strengthen its position in the regional elections. Far-right and nationalist parties had a strong showing in the EP elections in June after overcoming mutual animosities and forming anti-system coalitions.

This included the hard nationalist list STACILO! [It was enough!] led by communist veteran MEP Katerina Konecna and a new MEP, lawyer Ondrej Dostal, who campaigned for keeping the Czech currency and against the EU’s migration pact. Other anti-EU parties, Prisaha [The Pledge] and the Motorists, also secured two MEPs after forming a joint list.

Both formations have formed nationalist joint lists for most of the regions, and KSCM even brought SOCDEM on board in the Usti nad Labem region. On the other hand, the Pledge and Motorists were not able to file a candidate list for the Karlovy Vary, Pardubice and Zlin regions.    

SPD brought on board the nationalist Trikolora (Tricolour) party in all the regions but Zlin, while in other regions it also formed joint lists with the pro-Kremlin PRO and staunchly Eurosceptic and libertarian Svobodni [Freedom party].