Donald Trump’s December 16 comments on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the context of unfolding events in post-Assad Syria reflected the US president-elect’s tendency to keep world leaders on their toes, according to a foreign policy analyst.

It is possible that Erdogan thought that Trump would be an “ace in the hole”, Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, was on December 18 quoted as saying by the Financial Times, adding that the Turkish leader would now be “not sure exactly where he sits”, giving the US’s incoming leader leverage.

The UK daily also spoke to Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, who said: “Trump has issued a warning of sorts to the new rulers of Syria and their patrons, which is ‘rule carefully, because we are watching’.”

Trump in his remarks plainly stated that it was Turkey that forced out Syrian dictator of 24 years Assad, who fled to Moscow after his army scattered in the face of an offensive.

By supporting the anti-Assad forces, "Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost," Trump told a press conference at his residence in Palm Beach, Florida. “Those people who went in are controlled by Turkey,” Trump added.

Trump’s words clash with the narrative spun by Ankara that says Turkey offered no direct support to the main force that conducted the lightning offensive against Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, it is widely acknowledged that HTS, a jihadist outfit that has many foreign mercenaries in its ranks, took root and grew just over the border from Turkey, under the watchful patronage of Erdogan. Many analysts also assess that the offensive could not have gone ahead without a green light from Turkey.

In further comments, Trump said Erdogan was “a smart guy and he’s very tough” and had made Ankara the key foreign actor in Syria since Assad’s fall.

The Trump-Erdogan relationship is complicated. One hindrance to cooperation is Trump’s support for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions in waging war on Hamas and Hezbollah in response to the October 7, 2023 massacre committed by Hamas in a cross-border attack on Israel. Erdogan has described Netanyahu as a “maniac” psychopath, a “vampire” and “a Hitler” who has committed atrocious war crime against the Palestinians.

With Turkey and Israel—which has taken the opportunity presented by the collapse of the Syrian regime to seize more Syrian land in the Golan Heights and mount heavy air strikes aimed at destroying military hardware deserted by the dissolved Assad armed forces, foiling any plans that jihadist groups might have had to take it over—possibly emerging as the two key Middle East players in shaping the new Syria, Trump may have some choices to make.