When asked if Europe will be at the table in the upcoming US-Russia negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine, US special envoy to Ukraine retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg said “no.”

Asked at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on February 15: “Can you assure this audience that Ukrainians will be at the table and Europeans will be at the table?”, his response was: “the answer to that last question is no.”

In a follow up question, he was asked to confirm the fact that Europe would not be invited to the talks and replied: “So the Europeans… you don't think you should be at the table directly? I’m from the school of realism, I think that’s not going to happen.”

The Kremlin is delighted with the chaos that emerged from the MSC summit. Moscow and Washington will from now on “focus on peace not war,” Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with television host Pavel Zarubin on February 16.

"They send a powerful message that from now on we will try to solve problems through dialogue. And from now on we will talk about peace, not war," he said.

According to Peskov, Trump’s views should appeal to any sound-minded person. He said Russia completely lacked communication with the previous US administration, TASS reported. 

Zelenskiy’s worst fears have been confirmed with the weekend’s comments at the MSC. During his conversation with US President Donald Trump last week, he pushed for reassurances of US support and got none.

“A few days ago, President Trump told me about his conversation with Putin. Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at that table. That says a lot. The old days are over – when America supported Europe just because it always had,” Zelenskiy said at the MSC conference.

A rapidly expanding chasm is opening up in trans-Atlantic ties, and Kellogg said he understood that barring Europe from the talks might be “like fingers on a chalkboard, may grate a little bit but I'm telling you something that's really quite honest.”

Kellogg’s remarks follow on from a controversial speech by US Vice President JD Vance who lambasted the EU for falling down on freedom of speech values and accused it of undermining democracy. He added insult to injury by meeting with the far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) leader Alive Weidel while in Germany provoking German Chancellor Olaf Scholz into accusing the US of interfering in Germany’s elections; Germans go to the polls on February 23 and Scholz’s SPD is trailing in the polls with 15%, while AfD is in second place with 21% and will likely get a boost from the US’ de facto endorsement. The Christian Democratic Union is currently leading with 31% and its leader (CDU) Friedrich Merz, who is almost certain to become the new chancellor, is downbeat on supporting Ukraine. 

Europeans are in shock and scrambling to form a united response to the US position as it will attempt to barge its way into the talks. The official line throughout the last three years has been that only Kyiv can decide to bring the war to an end and must not only participate in talks but lead them to get terms that are acceptable to Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) for a “just” and long-lasting peace.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called for an emergency EU summit in Paris on February 17. Germany, Italy, and Poland are to meet in Paris together with Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte.

Europe is clearly torn over Trump’s decision to ignore it in the upcoming negotiation, with some EU members demanding the solution to the Ukraine crisis is a problem that can only be solved by the international community in cooperation with Kyiv, while others remain focused on maintaining good relations with the US and the security umbrella it has provided since the end of WWII.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described the situation as a "moment of truth" for Europe, urging European leaders to unite and take decisive action.

“This is an existential moment. It’s a moment where Europe has to stand up,” she said in a speech at the MSC. “There won’t be any lasting peace, if it’s not a European-agreed peace.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the other hand said that his primary goal in the Paris summit meeting would be, “to ensure we keep the US and Europe together. We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face.”

A visibly stressed Zelenskiy lashed out at the US proposal: “Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our back without our involvement, and the same rule should apply to all of Europe,” he said in his MSC speech.

He called for a creation of an “armed forces of Europe” because the US can “no longer be counted on to support the Continent,” after Rutte made it clear that Ukraine was “never promised Nato membership” during his comments at the MSC.

“I really believe that time has come,” Zelenskiy told the MSC delegates. “The armed forces of Europe must be created.”

Washington sent out a questionnaire last week asking what they would be willing to do to keep the peace in Ukraine after a ceasefire. It includes six questions including a request for an indication of how many troops they would be willing to contribute to a peacekeeping force, sources told Reuters.

“The Americans have provided Europeans with the questionnaire on what would be possible,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said. “This will force Europeans to think, then it’s up to the Europeans to decide whether they actually answer the questionnaire, or whether they answer it together.”

Sending peacekeepers to enforce a ceasefire and police a demilitarised zone (DMZ) is one of the options that the Western allies are looking at in lieu of full Nato Article 5-like security guarantees. Some have proposed a force of 40,000 peacekeepers, but Zelenskiy has called for 200,000. However, the Kremlin is likely to reject the idea of any Nato-backed forces on Ukraine’s territory out of hand.

In his victory plan circulated in December, Zelenskiy pushed for accelerated Nato membership as Europe’s “cheapest” option for providing the  security deals Ukraine needs for any ceasefire deal to work that remain elusive. But those hopes have been dashed. It is now clear Ukraine will not be admitted to Nato for at least 25 years, according to US Secretary for Defence Pete Hegseth, ending the rhetoric of Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to Nato membership.

Zelenskiy responded that Ukraine will have to “build our own Nato” by expanding the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to at least 1.5mn men and boost its own domestic defence industry at a time when the war is going increasingly badly for Ukraine.

Zelenskiy also told The Associated Press on February 15 that he “didn’t let” his ministers sign off on an agreement with the US to exploit Ukraine’s considerable mineral resources, because “it is not ready to protect us, our interest.”

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), who is emerging as a key player in the Middle East peace process, has also called an emergency summit for the five leading Arab states to work out a response to Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza and expel around 2mn Palestinians that live there to build a “Riviera of the Middle East.” As bne IntelliNews reported, the chances of the Ukraine conflict being linked to Palestine are increasing.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the US State Department said that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on February 15 by phone. Rubio reaffirmed Trump’s “commitment to finding an end to the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, they discussed the opportunity to potentially work together on a number of other bilateral issues,” US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said, reports AP.

Rubio is currently on tour in the Middle East ahead of the Ukraine ceasefire talks that will be held in Riyadh to sound out Arab leaders ahead of the negotiations with Russia.

Shut up and pay

Kellogg also made it clear that even if Europe was part of the negotiations, the White House still expects Brussels to abide by the deal and moreover continue to provide Ukraine with both military and financial aid. Trump has previously said that Europe “must pay and do more” for Ukraine because of its geographical proximity to the war.

“You have to understand, when you sign up for these security guarantees, that is an obligation and the reason I say that and I challenge many people that are out there, right now, 2014 Wales declaration, all the Nato allies, 2% of GDP, 20% of that was modernisation, there are still eight nations who've not even gotten to that number, okay? So, when we get to it make sure you check your six as they say that the obligation is upon YOU when WE make these commitments,” Kellogg said.

European leaders are in crisis mode as it becomes increasingly clear that Trump’s plan is that “Europe should stay out of negotiations that will fundamentally affect their security architecture - yet bear the primary responsibility and cost for the negotiations' outcome,” political commentator Arnaud Bertrand said in a social media post. Moreover, it is also clear that Trump is looking to take control of Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits as payment for US support. “As Greek historian Thucydides wrote 2,500 years ago, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”," Bertrand added.

"If the United States is going to monetise its support for the defence of Kyiv, then why not dozens of other countries that helped? And if that happens, there will be nothing left of the country but bones," Bloomberg commentator and former editor of the Moscow Times said in a recent opinion piece.

The US support for Ukraine already petered off in 2023 when it ran out of money for Ukraine at the start of the year before finally putting a $61bn aid package in place on April 20. However, earlier this month Zelenskiy complained that Ukraine has received less than half of the support the US promised and some $100bn from a total of $177bn pledged has failed to appear in Kyiv as Ukraine’s relations with the newly installed Trump administration got off to a rocky start thanks to missing money, delayed arms deliveries and demand for mining deals.

The split of support between Europe and the West for Ukraine is already at 60/40, according to the Kiel Institute that tracks support, and US support is expected to fall off further and quickly under Trump’s leadership.

“Over the past three years of war, donor countries have provided a low but continuous flow of support to Ukraine, with a value of about €80bn per year. European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid,” the Kiel Institute says on its website. “In total, approximately €267bn in aid has been allocated to Ukraine over the past three years, amounting to more than €80bn per year. Of the total around €130bn (49%) was allocated in military assistance, €118bn (44%) in financial support, and €19bn (7%) in humanitarian aid.”

Germany remains Ukraine’s biggest donor, but facing its own budget crisis, Germany has also run out of money for Ukraine and France is in similar fiscal dire straits and also reduced its commitments in October.

Zelenskiy faced the grim realities of his worsening position at Munich, saying that it will be “very difficult” for Ukraine to continue its military campaign without continued US support.