Romania’s constitutional court (CCR) on October 5 invalidated the presidential candidacy of far-right populist politician Diana Sosoaca, a decision that looks set to boost the position of the more moderate far-right candidate George Simion in the first round on November 24. 

After independent candidate Mircea Geoana came under attack for his ties to a local politician with Russian links, this is the second development within days that looks likely to pave the way for Simion to make it to the second round of the presidential elections.

The other candidate in the runoff is almost certain to be Social Democrat Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. If Simion makes the run-off, rather than one of the other candidates, this would make a victory for Ciolacu more likely. 

Initially, the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) validated Sosoaca’s candidacy, on October 3. However, on October 6, based on the CCR’s October 5 decision, the BEC invalidated the second candidacy request filed by Sosoaca.

The CCR has not published the detailed ruling yet, but the objections to Sosoaca’s candidacy as filed by two individuals (including one of her political partners) relate to allegations that  there were forgeries on the lists of voters filed along with the candidacy request.

It is important to note that the Constitutional Court does not rule on such matters. Furthermore, the Central Electoral Bureau had initially cleared the documents on October 3.

Sosaca is one of Romania's most controversial politicians. The pro-Kremlin rabble rouser was expelled from the far-right party AUR while a member of the Romanian parliament. She was thrown out of the European Parliamentary chamber in July after repeatedly interrupting other speakers. She has accused European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of "killing people" and "impoverishing Romanians" for supporting Ukraine's defence against Russian aggression, and said she would bring in a priest to exorcise the EP chamber.

Sosoaca’s rejection as a candidate prompted a furious public reaction, often with an anti-Western and particularly antisemitic slant.  It also prompted criticism of the CCR by virtually all the other presidential candidates, including Simion. 

The criticism of the CCR concerns both the expected rise in Sosoaca’s electoral support, as well as the potential damage to the country's democracy because of the opaque procedure.

Not surprisingly, rumours about the Social Democrats’ potential involvement in at least one of the two incidents boosting Ciolacu’s odds have been circulated. 

The Social Democrats have already signalled that their junior ruling partners, the National Liberal Party (PNL), are not essential for the next ruling coalition – which may be only partly true but is an important statement in the bargaining process between the two ruling partners, who are expected to remain in office after the parliamentary election this autumn. 

“The CCR must present the motivation quickly, otherwise, we are talking about a vulnerability of the democratic system in Romania," Ciolacu said in a Facebook post, adding that the CCR’s decision, in the absence of a justification, seems “disproportionate in relation to the fundamental democratic principles”. 

Other presidential candidates, whose positions are at risk following Simion’s presumed electoral gain, were also critical.

“[The CCR’s decision] to eliminate a presidential candidate from the race may have constitutional justification, but it certainly has anti-democratic effects and is not something that is good for us and it is not healthy for our democracy,” Geoana stated.

Liberal candidate Nicolae Ciuca of the PNL was perhaps the most radical and pointed his finger at what he called the Social Democrats’ appetite for totalitarian power.

"I say one thing to the Social Democrats, who today celebrate the CCR's decision: Romanians understand when someone wants absolute power," said Ciucă.

Kelemen Hunor, president of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), argued that as long as she was not stripped of her civil rights, for instance following a criminal ruling, Sosoaca has the right to be a candidate.