Central Asia risks being plunged into a state of chronic water shortage as a major new canal project nears completion in Afghanistan. Failure to improve management of the landlocked region’s shared water resources would threaten the region’s interconnected water, energy and food systems, jeopardise fragile ecosystems and, most worryingly, exacerbate existing tensions and put peace between the nations in the region at risk, warned representatives of international development banks at a conference organised by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) in Almaty. 

The increased needs stemming from the fast-growing populations and expanding economies of the five Central Asian republics have already added to water stress. 

Of the 127 cubic kilometres of water flowing through the basins of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – the two great rivers in the region and crucial lifelines supporting agriculture and livelihoods – 104 cubic kilometres, or more than 80%, are used for irrigation. 

On top of this comes Afghanistan's ambitious Qosh Tepa canal project, which when completed in 2028 will draw increasing amounts of water from the Amu Darya, expected to reach as much as 10 cubic kilometres per year. 

“From that moment the region will shift to chronic water shortage,” EDB chief economist Evgeny Vinokurov said during the EDB annual meeting and business forum on June 27. “Nowadays we are faced with water shortages during some seasons. In four years we will be always faced with this problem.” 

“According to our estimates, around 2028-29, the region, in the base scenario, will enter a period of chronic water shortage. That is, there will always be a shortage of water, not only in dry years. And this may be the most serious challenge facing the region here and now,” Vinokurov told journalists on the sidelines of the event in Almaty, Kazakhstan. 

Drinking water at risk

New research from the EDB presented at the forum shows that Central Asia also faces a critical challenge in ensuring access to safe drinking water for its population, with nearly 10mn people currently without adequate access.

Between 1994 and 2020, water withdrawals for drinking and domestic purposes doubled, yet investments in infrastructure failed to keep pace, leading to extensive wear and tear to 80% of water and sanitation equipment.

In Central Asia, the situation is exacerbated by ageing infrastructure, declining water quality and the adverse impacts of climate change, according to the development bank's research report, titled “Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation in Central Asia”. Current investments in the water and sanitation sector are insufficient to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 targets by 2030, with a projected shortfall of over $12bn over the next five years alone. 

Uzbekistan faces the largest deficit, needing approximately $826mn annually, followed by Kazakhstan at $700mn annually, and Tajikistan requiring more than $209mn annually. To address these issues by 2030, an estimated additional $12bn in investment is required, translating to approximately $2bn annually from 2025 onwards.

Water is not only used for consumption and irrigation, it is also needed for hydropower generation, especially in the upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. 

Vinokurov highlighted the critical importance of water to the region's peace and development, outlining the interconnectedness of water, energy and food security in Central Asia. "In Central Asia, this nexus is crucial," he said. 

Environmental degradation 

Central Asia's water woes are further compounded by historical mismanagement and environmental degradation. The tragedy of the Aral Sea is known the world over. Once the world's fourth-largest inland body of water, its desiccation over the past five decades due to diverted rivers has left behind an ecological disaster zone, after Soviet-era policies prioritised the cotton industry over sustainable water management.

Recent climate trends exacerbate these challenges, with increased desertification, extreme weather events and glacial melt posing imminent threats across Central Asia and the broader region. 

Rapid snowmelt this spring resulted in the worst floods to hit northern Kazakhstan in the last 80 years, forcing the evacuation of over 117,000 people. While the waters have receded, threats remain; the floods are anticipated to have a negative impact on the harvest, as the fertile soil layer has been washed away, while ecologists have warned of potential droughts this summer due to the depletion of water resources. 

Such events are only expected to become more common as the Climate Crisis deepens. “The Central and West Asia region [comprising Central Asia plus Afghanistan, Pakistan and the South Caucasus] is facing increasing vulnerability to climate change. Higher than expected temperature rises are likely lead to greater water scarcity, expanded desertification and more extreme weather events like foods, droughts and heat stress. This in turn will affect fragile ecosystems,” Utsav Kumar, country director for Kazakhstan at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), told a panel looking at the interlinked issues of water, energy and food in Central Asia. 

The ADB expects a 37% water supply gap by 2050 unless water structures are modernised. “This gap will lead to lower agricultural productivity, more food insecurity and potential conflicts over scarce resources,” according to Kumar. 

Such conflicts are already a reality in Central Asia, where localised fighting broke out on a stretch of the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border in September 2022. The region contains critical choke points along rivers that provide strategic water resources to Batken – the district capital city on the Kyrgyzstan side – and to large swathes of irrigated farmland in Tajikistan. Dozens of civilians were killed in brutal attacks from both sides. 

Strategies for better management 

Despite the worrying state of Central Asia’s water management, and its implications for food security and energy, all is not lost. 

According to Vinokurov, 2023 was a turning point for the region. Not only did both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan adopt comprehensive water management programmes, inter-state cooperation was stepped up, with the presidents of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan meeting to discuss shared water resources and the response to Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa canal. 

Kazakhstan, for instance, has outlined ambitious plans to overhaul its water policy and infrastructure by 2030, focusing on efficiency, conservation and technological innovation.

Speaking at the EDB conference, Kazakhstan’s First Vice-Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Bolat Bekniyaz stressed the importance of tackling the interconnected issues of water, energy and food production. 

“Water here is crucial, and this needs to determine the economic policies of the countries,” said Bekniyaz, pointing to the Kazakh government’s concept for water management for 2024-2030. 

“Rational use of available water resources will allow us to move from resource management to demand management, without increasing water withdrawal. Considering the threat of a decrease in inflows along transboundary rivers, as well as the presence of large losses in irrigation canals, we need to carry out joint comprehensive work to save water,” he added. 

“Limited water resources are a key challenge for the development of Central Asia and negatively affect the situation of the population … A long-term and comprehensive approach is required for the development of the region,” agreed Sukhrob Khodzhimatov, deputy resident representative of the UNDP in Kazakhstan. 

“We must improve the efficiency of existing water resources through modernising irrigation, introducing new approaches to saving and reusing water, and developing alternative water sources.” 

Speaking to journalists, Vinokurov outlined steps including digital water accounting, which he described as “probably the main key to solving the problem”. The second key, according to the economist, is effective irrigation. 

The EDB already provides technical assistance grants, and at the end of June signed an agreement with the Ministry of Water Resources of Kazakhstan and the UNDP to allocate $5.3mn for digital water accounting, reservoirs and a regional centre for regulatory expertise in Kazakhstan.

A new industry 

Another idea put forward by Vinokurov is that a new industry producing irrigation systems and equipment could be developed in Central Asia, rather than the region relying on imports. 

“The region spends $150mn-300mn a year on the purchase of irrigation equipment. Taking the region as a whole, it is the fifth largest market in the world by capacity,” Vinokurov told journalists. “Start by building your own market, and then move on to export … You can’t live your whole life specialising in raw materials.”

There are already some small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan supplying irrigation equipment and components, yet panellists said that there is huge potential to do more, especially in the southern parts of the country. 

For Central Asia, the stakes are clear: effective water management is not merely an environmental or economic issue but a linchpin for regional stability and sustainable development. The next four years will be critical in determining whether the region can alleviate its water woes or face the consequences of inaction. And with better management of its limited resources, this might not only avert new crises, but potentially lead to the rise of new industries.