The World Bank has sharply revised downward its economic growth projections for Romania, now expecting GDP to grow by just 1.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, the World Bank Europe and Central Asia Economic Update said on April 23. These are the lowest growth rates forecast among the countries in the region.

The updated figures represent cuts of 0.8 of a percentage point (pp) for 2025 and 0.7 pp for 2026 compared to previous estimates. In contrast, the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region as a whole is projected to grow by 2.5% in both years, even after a minor downward revision of 0.1 pp.

The downgrade puts Romania well below regional averages and significantly below the Romanian government’s own projections, which anticipate GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. The discrepancy between the official forecasts and the World Bank’s assessment raises further concerns over the government’s fiscal assumptions, particularly in the context of widening deficits and potential rating downgrades.

The World Bank highlighted that downside risks dominate the outlook, citing “heightened global policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation, increased trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and financial market volatility”. The institution also warned that a weaker-than-expected performance by key trading partners, combined with adverse developments in global trade policy and falling commodity prices, could weigh further on growth.

Inflationary pressures could also persist, driven by tight labour markets and potential supply-side disruptions, although the World Bank noted the future path of these risks remains uncertain.

In 2024, the region’s economic activity stabilised at 3.6%, supported by robust private consumption, real wage growth, increased remittances and expanding consumer credit. These factors helped to offset slowing external demand stemming from reduced economic growth in the European Union.

Romania’s downgraded forecast now places additional pressure on policymakers to revise budgetary planning and reinforce structural reforms.