Croatia's incumbent President Zoran Milanovic will face the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) candidate Dragan Primorac in the presidential election runoff after narrowly failing to secure a first round victory. 

Exit polls had initially indicated an outright win for the outspoken president, but as the vote count got underway it became clear Milanovic had taken just under the 50% of the vote needed for a first round victory. 

Provisional results published by the Central Election Commission on the morning of December 30 showed Milanovic backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its allies, had 49.09% of the vote. 

Primorac was on 19.35% and third placed candidate Marija Selak Raspudic had 9.25%. 

While Primorac trailed Milanovic in the first round, the HDZ is hopeful of a turnaround in the runoff. 

"As of tomorrow, it's a new ballgame," Prime Minister and HDZ leader Andrej Plenković said on December 30, reported Croatian news agency Hina. 

However, the SDP expressed optimism that Milanovic would take the presidency in the second round, pointing to the president’s popularity across the country. 

“Congratulations to Zoran! We look forward to winning the second round, because voters have clearly shown that they believe in a better, fairer and freer Croatia. This is a message to Andrej Plenković and his candidate that people see and watch what is happening in our country,” wrote SDP president Sinisa Hajdas Doncic on X (formerly Twitter). 

“Message to Andrej Plenkovic: all of Croatia is in the red,” wrote SDP vice president Mirela Ahmetovic, alongside an electoral map. 

The election, marked by low voter turnout compared to the previous presidential election in 2019, has reinforced Milanovic’s position as one of Croatia’s most polarising yet popular politicians.

Should he pull off a second round victory, the stage would be set for a continuation of the tense cohabitation with Plenkovic’s government, which has frequently erupted into public arguments between president and prime minister.

While the presidency in Croatia is largely ceremonial, Milanovic’s combative leadership and controversial rhetoric have made the election a litmus test for the country’s alignment with Western policies and its stance on the war in Ukraine.

Since taking office in 2020, Milanovic has often clashed with Plenkovic, adopting positions critics label as populist and at times “pro-Russian”. His opposition to Zagreb’s policy on Ukraine has sparked heated disputes with the HDZ-led government.

The issue repeatedly came to a head this autumn, with public spats erupting over Croatia’s involvement in a Nato training mission in Ukraine. 

In October, Plenkovic accused Milanovic of an "attempted coup" following a decision by the president to block General Tihomir Kundid, the chief of the general staff, from attending a parliamentary Defence Committee meeting. Milanovic, who serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, refused to allow Kundid to brief lawmakers on the mission. 

Earlier in 2024, he announced plans to run for the prime minister position, which holds more powers than the largely ceremonial presidency, but was blocked from doing so by the the Constitutional Court. 

Primorac, a university professor and paediatrician, ran on a platform emphasising unity and Croatia’s Western alliances. 

He was picked as the candidate for the ruling HDZ, which won the general election earlier this year, as well as taking more seats than the SDP in the European Parliament elections. 

However, his campaign was overshadowed by a corruption scandal involving the health minister from the HDZ, who was arrested recently on bribery charges and subsequently sacked. The scandal left Plenkovic’s government struggling to restore confidence in the healthcare system.

The HDZ-led government has also come under pressure from public sector workers, who have pushed for pay rises in the weeks ahead of the election. A deal was reached on an increase in the base pay for state and public services on December 27.