Iran's Islamic Propaganda Organisation has launched a new initiative to support grassroots birth activists and facilitate marriages as births plummet, a senior official said on August 14, Salamat news reported.

The programme comes as Iran faces a sharp decline in marriage and birth rates, which has fallen from 6.5 births per woman in the 1980s to just 1.06 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The announcement follows new shocking data that says that more than 1,000 abortions are occurring across Iran per day.

Implemented through a new online platform, the initiative aims to fulfil Article 30 of Iran's "Family Support and Youth Population" law, according to Mohammad Sadegh Aboutorabi, Secretary of the Family and Population Headquarters at the Islamic Propaganda Organisation.

"All those active in the fields of family, lifestyle, marriage, divorce, fertility, infertility, childbearing, and abortion can register on this platform," Aboutorabi told the Mehr news agency.

Aboutorabi said that projects deemed innovative and effective in solving population issues would be prioritised for support.

"In addition to implementing Article 31 of the law, our important goal is to effectively increase the fertility rate across the country," he said, adding that supporting active and concerned civilian groups is a crucial way to achieve this goal.

1,000 abortions a day in Iran

Shahrvand Daily reported on August 14, after the implementation of population control policies, Iran witnessed a significant decrease in population growth in the 1980s, now seen as  “too successful” by many in the government. This decline has become a major concern for Iranian officials, especially with the growing trend toward an aging population. This shift has led to the introduction of incentivising policies aimed at encouraging childbirth.

However, the phenomenon of abortion, although legal in medical context if the health of the mother is in danger, is considered particularly alarming by health authorities, who cite it as a significant factor in the country's declining birth rate.

The risk of an ageing population and the reduction in birth rates have reached a critical level, with some officials describing the statistics as beyond a mere "warning."

Saber Jabari, head of the Population Youth Centre at the Ministry of Health, reports that at least 1,000 abortions occur daily in the country, with only 10 of these being legal. This implies that approximately 361,350 illegal abortions take place annually in Iran, which is alarming considering that the country records about 1mn to 1.2mn births each year, effectively resulting in the loss of almost one-third of potential births.

Jabari further noted on the reasons behind the rise in abortion rates. The three main causes are the desire to avoid having more children, economic hardships, and untimely pregnancies. The desire to avoid more children, influenced by past family planning slogans, accounts for about 40% of abortions, while economic reasons contribute to 21%, and untimely pregnancies to 20%.

To combat the issue, the education centres have been established to educate and counsel couples, discouraging them from opting for abortions.

The findings suggest that 60% of couples change their minds after realising that abortion is considered an act of murder, even if the foetus is less than four months old.

Worsening medical sector statistics

However, hospital availability is playing into the death rates for children, according to more fresh data out of the country. According to the latest statistics from 2022, Iran faces a shortage of 12,000 ICU beds. The most recent data on the shortage of NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) beds is from 2017, which indicated that at least 1,000 more beds were needed for children's intensive care in Iran. Since then, no updated statistics on this specific shortage have been provided.

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly with the Delta variant, the severe impact on infants and children made the shortage of NICU beds more apparent to families who struggled to find available hospital beds for their newborns leading to a greater mortality rate in regions across the country. UN data suggest, Iran's hospital bed availability is 1.8 beds per 1,000 people, whereas the World Health Organisation's standard is three beds per 1,000 people.

Statistics from Iran’s National Organisation for Civil Registration show a decline in the number of births: 1,117,000 in 2021, 1,072,000 in 2022, and 1,052,000 in 2023. However, Jabari remains hopeful that the declining trend will slow down and eventually reverse by 2024. He highlights that Iran’s fertility rate has stabilized, and the declining trend has been halted.

Earlier on July 29, Deputy for Political, Security and Social Affairs of the Fariman Governorate announced that the fertility rate in that county increased from 2.6 children per mother in 2022 to 4.6 children per mother in the first quarter of this year, suggesting local efforts to turn the tide around were happening in some locations.

Amir Zakari, in an interview with an IRNA last month, attributed this growth to the Raisi government's supportive measures with cash incentives and pro-natal policies. These measures include free insurance coverage for rural mothers with three or more children, support and care for pregnant mothers, and incentives for childbearing.

He further added additional factors such as granting land to families with children, paying health workers to prevent illegal abortions, providing marriage loans, creating sustainable employment, and cultural and educational initiatives all led to a brief boost in the short term.

Policies in these areas have suggested that any benefit is local, and not proven on a broader scale across the country, including in larger cities and the capital Tehran, where offers of land are not forthcoming by authorities.

The global fertility rate has decreased significantly from 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 today, with projections indicating a further drop to 1.8 by 2050. A fertility rate below 2.1 suggests that population size will begin to decline. By 2050, more than three-quarters of countries may not have sufficient fertility rates to maintain their populations in the long term, leading to a greater divide between wealthy and poorer regions. While populations in wealthier areas are expected to shrink, those in lower-income regions like Iran are not far behind first world nations.

In high-income and developing countries, declining fertility rates may result in a reduced workforce, leaving fewer working-age adults to support an increasingly ageing population.

The situation varies among the world's most populous countries. Some face declining fertility rates, threatening population growth, while others continue to experience high fertility rates, leading to substantial population increases that require control measures.

Similar economies to Iran, Indonesia and Pakistan have also seen declines in their fertility rates. In Indonesia, with a fertility rate of 2.18, efforts are underway to balance population growth by improving access to contraception, education, and professional development for women.

Earlier on July 29, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Russia's fertility rate as "catastrophically low," warning on July 26 that it poses a serious threat to the country's future, but the rate is still not as bad as the worst rates in Europe. 

As reported by bne IntelliNews in the Putin’s babies feature, President Vladimir Putin has focused on improving Russia’s demographics since his first day in office. Russia suffered from a demographic collapse during the chaos of the 1990s and, despite a brief recovery in the boom years of the noughties, the population is still in decline.