In 2024, Iran experienced significant political and economic developments that have reshaped its domestic and international landscape, including the loss of key allies in its cold war with Israel. 

The unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in May 2024 led to a snap presidential election. Left-field unknown “Reformist” candidate Masoud Pezeshkian secured the presidency, defeating ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili by nearly 3mn votes on an offer to relax the country’s suffocating social restrictions. 

Pezeshkian, a former health minister, has pledged to improve living standards by seeking the lifting of US sanctions and easing social restrictions, particularly those affecting women. His administration aims to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, with Mohammad Javad Zarif appointed as a diplomatic adviser for this task. Despite these intentions, Pezeshkian faces challenges within a regime dominated by hard-liners and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's economy has shown resilience despite ongoing sanctions. The International Monetary Fund projected a 3.5% growth for 2024, driven by a rebound in oil production and exports. Iran's crude oil exports have reached levels not seen in six years, with significant sales to China and other nations. 

However, this economic growth has not alleviated hardships for ordinary Iranians, who continue to face high inflation and unemployment rates. A significant portion of the regime's revenue is reportedly allocated to military and regional activities, limiting domestic economic relief.

Iran's foreign policy remains complex, particularly concerning its nuclear program and relations with global powers. The potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2025 has prompted Iranian policymakers to consider strategies for dealing with renewed US pressure. This includes debates over the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the possibility of accelerating nuclear activities as a countermeasure.

Regionally, Iran's involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts through proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas continues to shape its geopolitical stance. The new administration's approach to these alliances and its willingness to engage in regional diplomacy will have a significant impact on Iran's international relations in the coming year.

 

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