This report covers the main macroeconomic releases of November 2013 for Bulgaria as well as financial and political trends in the country during this period.

The Bulgarian economy expanded 0.7% year on year in the third quarter of 2013, the statistics office said on December 4. This marks a slight downward revision of the preliminary estimate of 0.8%. In quarterly terms, the seasonally adjusted GDP expanded by 0.5% in Q3, also a slightly weaker rate than the flash estimate of 0.6%. The European Commission cut its projections for Bulgaria's real GDP growth to 0.5% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014. Michele Shannon, the IMF's mission chief for Bulgaria, said in an interview for Capital Daily that preserving macroeconomic stability is a key prerequisite for higher levels of growth in Bulgaria.

The Bulgarian aggregate price level recorded a third consecutive annual decline as the consumer price index went down by 1.4% year on year in October after falling by 1.6% in September and 0.7% in August. The unemployment rate increased 0.5pps year on year to 12% in the third quarter of 2013 on higher number of people entering the labor market in search of a job.

Key Points:

• The overall business climate indicator increased 1.7 points month on month in November 2013 on the improved outlook in industry and services after falling 2.1 points in the previous month.

• The calendar-adjusted industrial production index registered its first annual increase since March, rising by 0.5% year on year in September.

• The approval rating of Bulgaria's government declined to 26% in November from 30% the month before.

• The IMF has said that Bulgaria’s budget deficit target of 1.8% of GDP in 2014 is justifiable. but there are revenue-side risks associated with lower-than-expected domestic demand, unrealized gains from planned administrative reforms, and subdued inflation.