The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad delivered a major blow to the global ambitions of his staunch ally and fellow strongman Vladimir Putin. As the Syrian rebels consolidate power after 13 years of civil war, Russia will likely lose control of its only naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, along with an airfield used to supply its operations in Africa.

The Russian military installations in Syria (the naval base in Tartus and airfield at Khmeimim) have served as important symbols of the Kremlin’s projection of strength in the Middle East at the same time as it strives to rebuild its Cold War-era influence in Africa.

"A scenario in which the rebels toppled Assad would harm the Kremlin's strategic objectives involving Africa and surrounding waterways, such as projecting power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and threatening NATO's southern flank," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on December 4.

"Russia's activity in Libya and the Sahel supports its objectives of securing access in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, an undertaking that is heavily dependent upon Russia maintaining its naval base in Tartus," the US-based think-tank continued.

"Tartus is Russia's only formal overseas naval base, which it uses to project power into the Mediterranean for various purposes including ostensibly to counter NATO. Russia built up its presence in Tartus before it invaded Ukraine in 2022 to counter, deter, and monitor any NATO threats emanating from the Mediterranean, particularly aircraft carriers, among other things. The base also links Russia's Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean, although Turkey has severed this link for military vessels by closing the Turkish Straits under the Montreux Convention following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

In 2015, Putin sent Russian forces to Syria to prop up Assad, but he had already begun dispatching military advisers to bolster the regime in 2012, the year after the rulers of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt were deposed by armed rebellions that grew out of the anti-government Arab Spring protests.

Since 2017, the Wagner Group – the private military company (PMC) recently absorbed by the new Africa Corps under the direct control of Russia’s Ministry of Defence – has been providing security to unpopular leaders and juntas on the continent, in exchange for piles of cash or lucrative rights to mineral concessions.

Assad’s dramatic ouster shows that “Moscow doesn’t have the military forces, influence and authority to effectively intervene militarily outside the former Soviet Union,” Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a defence think-tank, told Bloomberg.

Russia has started withdrawing warships from Tartus and removing equipment from Khmeimim, the Ukrainian military intelligence reported on December 8 on its Telegram channel, without citing sources or signalling where they may be headed.

These past seven years, Wagner has been active in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mozambique, but most crucially – as Putin undoubtedly looks for a new base country for African operations – also in war-torn Sudan and Libya, a country split between two governments, more than a decade after the overthrow of Moammar Al Qaddafi.

Will it be war-torn Sudan (and the SDF)…

Sudan and Russia this spring reportedly agreed to establish a Russian navy base near Port Sudan, on the Red Sea, after years of discussing such an arrangement. According to an Institute for the Study of War report, Sudan’s then-president Omar al-Bashir and Putin as far back as 2017 reached a deal on the construction of a Russian base with room for hundreds of soldiers and four ships, but it was scuppered by ensuing political instability.

In the conflict that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Kremlin at first backed the latter, in no small part because the Wagner Group had previously clinched mining rights for Sudan's gold deposits.

Those rights have provided a steady source of foreign currency for Russia as it labours under Western sanctions imposed following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Wagner Group has generated over $2.5bn through illicit gold mining operations since February 2022, according to a World Gold Council (WGC) report. Sudan is one of the world’s largest gold exporters, and Russia has been illegally smuggling $13bn worth gold out of Sudan annually, CNN reported in July 2022.

The two countries have been since September, if not earlier, discussing collaboration in the energy sector by establishing joint projects in power generation, oil exploration and production, and fuel supply. Notably, Sudanese Ambassador to Moscow Mohammed Elghazali – who represents the interests of the SAF – thanked Russia for vetoing a United Nations Security Council resolution in late November, that called to half the war. Elghazali’s government complained it had not been properly consulted in the drafting of the resolution and that its authority was being undermined.

Russia has been fuelling the war by playing both sides of the conflict so it may align itself with the eventual winner, Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies within the US Defence Department, said in an interview with VOA Fact Check.

“Moscow has been supplying the Sudanese Armed Forces weapons while continuing to help supply the SAF’s enemy, the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary, through the Wagner Group,” Siegle told the US state broadcaster, referring to Russian troops now rebranded as Africa Corps.

If Putin wants to quickly develop Port Sudan as an alternative to the naval base and airfield in Syria, he may need to finally pick a side and align with the SAF, who control the area and access to vital shipping lanes.

“Russia has long pursued a Red Sea port to protect its economic interests in the region and improve its military posture vis-à-vis the West in the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, but the loss of Tartus would diminish the utility of such a base,” the ISW wrote.

“Russian media has reported that a base in Sudan would primarily serve as a resupply and stopover hub to enable Tartus to transition from a resupply base to a multipurpose naval base, a goal Russia has previously outlined as a key element of its effort to bolster its Mediterranean power projection.”

… or perhaps a divided Libya?

Russia has long taken advantage of governance issues and corruption in Libya through official and unofficial military and diplomatic channels, keen to exploit its oil reserves and gold deposits and secure influence in a country that, thanks to its geographic location, links Niger, Chad and Sudan to North Africa and Europe, making it of vital strategic importance.

The Wagner Group played a prominent role in the Libyan civil war, backing the forces of General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) against the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Wagner fighters were reportedly deployed to support Haftar's offensive on Tripoli.

Now, it’s the Africa Corps that is deploying mercenaries and military equipment in Libya, establishing logistical bases in the south of the country (Brak al-Shati and Tobruk). It also supports Haftar’s efforts to control key territories, including attempts to seize Tripoli.

The Africa Corp announced plans to build a naval base in Tobruk to have control of Mediterranean traffic and explore for gold, uranium and other critical minerals in Sudan, Mali, Niger and the Central African Republic (CAR) through deals with local authorities or militias in exchange for protection.

Russian involvement in the crisis has been characterised by a complex interplay of diplomatic and military support. The Russian interest in Libya extends beyond mere political influence, as the country possesses significant oil reserves, making it a valuable asset in terms of energy security.

An analysis by The Telegraph of air bases in Libya reveals the presence of military transport aircraft, expanded runways and reinforced perimeter defences, along with various other new buildings. Russia is already landing military aircraft in Libya on the refurbished runways as part of its rapid expansion in Africa.

“Russia could seek to use its positions in Libya or Sudan as replacements [if Syria is lost], but it currently lacks formal agreements and facilities in both countries to adequately fill Tartus’s role. Domestic and international political backlash poses obstacles to Russia establishing another highly visible base in the short-term in either country,” the ISW wrote.