Russia began to withdraw substantial amounts of equipment from its two bases in Syria on December 13, but it has not abandoned the country and is now in talks with the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government on a new deal that will allow it to remain, Reuters reports, citing Russian and Syrian sources.

Social media showed video of columns of trucks carrying troops and hardware leaving the Russian naval base at Tartus and satellite photos showed at least two giant Antonov cargo planes on the runway at the Khmeimim Russian-controlled airbase with nose cones open, preparing to load. At least one of the planes later left for a Russian airbase in Libya.

The former backer of the Assad regime, Russia is reducing its military presence in northern Syria and withdrawing from positions in the Alawite Mountains, but is not pulling out of its military bases or leaving the country, according to Reuters’ sources.

The move follows the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow on December 8, raising questions about the future of Moscow’s influence in Syria. The two bases are crucial to Russia’s influence in Syria, but are also key logistical nodes for its wider operations in the region and Africa.

A Syrian security official told Reuters at least one of the Antonovs had departed for Libya on December 14. Heavy equipment and senior Syria military officers are being relocated, but the sources suggest the withdrawals are tactical, focused on regrouping and redeploying until the transfer of power to the new Turkey-backed and former Al Qaida-affiliated HTS government is firmly in control of the country.

"Some equipment is being shipped back to Moscow, as are very senior officers from Assad's military," said a senior Syrian army official, stressing that Russia has no plans to abandon its presence at its two main bases.

The future of Russia’s military infrastructure in Syria is in doubt and the Kremlin is very keen to hang on to the two bases. Khmeimim and Tartus played crucial roles in Moscow’s support of Assad, whose regime cultivated close ties with the Kremlin over decades.

The naval base at Tartus, established in 1971, is especially important, as it has allowed Russia to return to the Mediterranean with a significant naval force in recent years and is one of Russia’s very few warm-water ports. If Russia loses the Tartus base, then its fleet will become bottled up in either its Baltic Sea ports or its Black Sea naval base that is under attack from Ukrainian missiles. Russia’s only other warm-water ports are in Vladivostok in the Far East, or at Murmansk on the edge of the Arctic Circle.

The Kremlin confirmed ongoing discussions with Syria’s interim government regarding its military installations but has offered no comments on their progress. A Russian source told Reuters that "Russia is not withdrawing from its bases." However, Syrian rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has not commented on his position regarding his plans for a relationship with Russia.

"It is a matter for future talks, and the Syrian people will have the final say," a senior rebel representative told Reuters. Rebel forces are now reportedly stationed near the Russian bases, and both sides are maintaining open communication channels.

HTS will be careful in developing its relations with the pragmatic Kremlin, which has invested heavily in building up its relations in the Middle East in recent years. While Russian President Vladimir Putin personally backed then Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, he will be happy to make a new relation with an HTS-led government, as he has built close ties with many of the players in the region, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran.

Russia will also be an important source of both food and weapons for the new government. Russia already supplies Syria with over 1mn tonnes per year (tpy) of grain that it needs to feed its people. And after Israel’s bombing campaign in the last week, most of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF) hardware has been destroyed and will have to be replaced. Russia has been supplying Syria with arms since Soviet times.

Russia’s involvement in Syria stretches back to its Cold War alliance with Damascus, with the country serving as a key regional partner, but Russia also has a base in Libya that could take over as the logistic hub to link Moscow to its African operations. "Cargo planes are likely rerouting via the Caucasus to Libya’s Al Khadim airbase," Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical expert told Reuters.