TEHRAN BLOG: 'We don't want war'

TEHRAN BLOG: 'We don't want war'
Iranian queue for fresh barbari bread following Israeli airstrikes. / bne IntelliNews
By bne Tehran bureau October 26, 2024

As dawn broke over Tehran on October 26, Iranians awoke to news of the biggest direct airstrikes on their homeland since the Iran-Iraq war, sparking fierce debate on the street and online over what happens next.

People across the Iranian capital were up early in queues for fresh bread, commenting on the strikes the prior night across the country. Many grumble about the lack of official acknowledgement, forcing many to rely on social media. Despite the government's limited information, the Ministry of Telecommunications sent out an SMS to all mobile phones warning people to rely on “reliable sources”, as banned apps like Telegram and X spread several fake stories and images, increasing stress throughout the night. 

The overnight attacks, which targeted sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces, came in apparent retaliation for Iran's 1 October missile barrage against Israel. While official sources claimed limited damage, the psychological impact on ordinary Iranians was profound.

"The explosions were so strong in Karaj that the windows shook," reported one resident who asked to remain anonymous in the satellite city west of Tehran. Others described hearing "several identical explosions" around 2:15 am in the capital's affluent northern District One, highlighting how the conflict has reached into the heart of Iran.

While some residents in the eastern part of Tehran did not hear the explosions, others in different cities of the province only noticed one explosion.

“My children and I did not hear the explosions at the time, but we were really surprised when we learned about the attack after we woke up,” mentioned Mayam from Tehran Pars.

“I heard an explosion around 5:15 and was surprised by its intensity; it was loud enough to be heard even from here. I had been following the news on Telegram channels since 4 am, so I was aware of what was happening,” said Milad, 23, from Pardis.

The strikes have sparked intense public debate about Iran's next moves. "Iran must respond with at least 1,000 missiles and quickly," argued  25-year-old Khosro, noting a hawkish sentiment shared by many who see the military response as essential for deterrence, considering Israel's ongoing onslaught in Gaza and Lebanon. 

However, a significant portion of the population appears to favour restraint.

"No to war – this is what the majority of people want," said Akram, 40, from the Abbasabad area of the city. Others suggested more nuanced approaches: "If the attacks remain limited and don't repeat, Iran should adopt the right strategy and avoid direct response," wrote one observer online, arguing that proxy forces' actions against Israel in Gaza and Lebanon provide sufficient pressure.

Kamran, a 37-year-old civil servant in downtown Tehran, recounts the ordeal he had to go through after Iranian air defence batteries responded to a pre-dawn air raid.   

“I woke up to heavy air defence fire right above our apartment block around 4 am. It lasted nearly two minutes. We were all terrified and stayed up the rest of the night,” he said.

“I hope it is not going to happen again. I hope Iran will not retaliate.”

The debate has brought underlying concerns to the surface. "America and Europe stand with Israel, but we are alone. Russia and China won't even give us one free missile, let alone join a war on our behalf," noted another commenter online, highlighting Iran's strategic isolation.

Other Tehranis expressed frustration with official communications, noting hours passed before authorities provided detailed information about the attacks. Others questioned claims about air defence effectiveness: "What does successful defence mean? Did they prevent the launch or shoot down aircraft?" said 63-year-old Ahmad from Tajrish. 

The strikes come at a delicate moment for Iran's economy, with its currency already under pressure and inflation running above 30%. Some worried about immediate economic impact: "Let's see if officials can control the market," wrote one person, referring to the Iranian rial's volatile exchange rate.

After the initial excitement subsided and fears faded, ordinary Iranians quickly turned their attention to their assets and how to protect them. A major topic of public discussion was the price of the dollar, gold and stocks and whether it was wise to sell, buy or hold onto these assets.

The exchange rate for one US dollar had reached nearly IRR700,000 the night before the attack due to fears of an imminent Israeli strike. However, it began to drop shortly after Israel announced the conclusion of the attack. Similarly, gold prices fell the following day, while stock market indices started to improve after weeks of decline.

"I bought gold last week at the highest price. Such loss!" said Samira, 44, from central Tehran, with deep regret. Samaneh, 42, said she was lucky to sell her gold stocks right before the attack. She suggested it is now the best time to buy gold or US dollars with prices at a minimum.

This is while Mohsen, 36, says: "I'm quite sure the exchange rates will be lower tomorrow...it's always like this when you expect it to go up, it goes down. That's why I don't put myself at risk...but the problem is that higher exchange rates leave lasting impacts on the prices even if they end up at previous levels," he added.

The volatile situation leaves ordinary people in limbo, uncertain about how to preserve the value of their savings. Somayyeh, 39, lamented the plight of ordinary people caught in the crossfire of political conflicts while those responsible remain safely untouched.

A reminder of the human cost of conflict came from veteran 65-year-old Alireza, who said while grabbing two loaves of bread to those celebrating the prospect of war: "Visit the Iran-Iraq war veterans' hospitals. Visit the martyrs' cemeteries. Then tell me war is a blessing."

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