Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Kursk has caught the headlines, but an equally fraught battle is being fought in Ukraine for the town of Pokrovsk that could change the course of the war if it falls to Russia.

In a blitzkrieg and clearly meticulously planned operation, Ukraine’s forces rapidly overwhelmed the border on August 6 and took the important town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, home the metering station that controls the gas pipeline still carrying Russian gas to Western Europe, send gas prices on Europe’s gas market spiking.

The AFU have been praised for mastering what is commonly known as “manoeuvre warfare,” that emphasises speed, coordination and the essential element of surprise, something the Russian army, at no stage in this war, ever employed or showed equal professionalism.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has taken a huge gamble. While the incursion into Kursk, on August 6 by some of Ukraine’s best forces that rapidly took control of over 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory, has been a spectacular success, it has also weakened the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) defence of the frontline inside Ukraine where the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) is currently engaged in a major assault and has also taken back hundreds of square kilometres of territory since the fall of Avdiivka on February 17.

The danger is if Pokrovsk falls to the AFR then they will break through into open country behind the Ukrainian lines, threaten other strategically important towns like Kramatorsk that could cause the Ukrainian defences to collapse.

The assault on Kursk has put the Ukrainian war back into the headlines at a time when Ukraine fatigue has grown again, and is a badly needed morale booster for both the population and the embattled AFU, but the strategic goals of the assault remain obscure.

Among the possibilities is to hand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a territorial card to trade for regions annexed and occupied by Russia at a mooted second peace summit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for November.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took that card off the table on August 20, saying any talks were now impossible following the incursion. Without the possibility of talks the next logical step is further escalation.

Another goal could be as a diversion to force Russia to pull troops away from the frontline in Ukraine and ease the pressure on the AFU, who are now in slow retreat. But if that was the goal so far it hasn’t worked. The Kremlin have moved some troops from the frontline and brought more in from as far away as Kaliningrad, but the numbers have been small and these are not Russia’s best fighting troops, at least for now.

If anything, the fighting for Pokrovsk has intensified as the AFR attempts to take advantage of the weakness introduced by the Kursk adventure and has only moved enough troops to contain the AFU expeditionary force inside the Kursk region without seriously challenging them in a problem that can be dealt with later.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the reaction to the incursion in Moscow has been muted, and despite being acutely embarrassed, Putin’s popularity and position are largely unaffected.

Over 130,000 of the civilian population in Kursk has already been evacuated and as reinforcements arrive the AFU progress has been slowed. Nevertheless, the AFU appear to be continuing to operate fairly freely within the region. Zelenskiy said on August 20 that the number of settlements under Ukraine’s control is now up to 94 from 82 a day earlier and Ukraine remains in control of the region.

“Amid the Kursk offensive, Russia has stopped advancing along most of Ukraine’s front line — with one notable exception: Pokrovsk. In fact, by concentrating efforts here, Russian troops have recently captured more land per week than at any point since May,” Kevin Rothrock, the managing editor at the English-language edition of Meduza, said in a social media post.

The picture that is emerging from the patchwork of limited reports coming out of the combat zones is that Russia has brought some units back from the Ukrainian frontline and scraped together some others elsewhere. According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia withdrew 5,000 troops from Ukraine and sent them to the Kursk region to halt the Ukrainian offensive. But this is only enough to contain the estimated 10,000-20,000 AFU troops in Kursk, but not to attack them. The Wall Street Journal estimates Moscow needs more than 20,000 trained soldiers to push the Ukrainians out of Russian territory.

It’s a problem that is being put off for later. The Kremlin doesn’t want to sacrifice its strategic advantage on the Ukrainian frontline – an advantage that has been improved by removing its best forces and equipment that are now bottled up in Kursk – while it completes its assault on Pokrovsk.

If this strategy is successful, it could well be that the Kursk incursion will later be seen as a major blunder. Bankova’s (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) best response is to cause as much chaos in the hope of forcing the Kremlin to bring more forces back from the frontline. As bne IntelliNews reported, Russia’s railway system has already been paralysed, but to maximise the chaos, Kyiv wants to be able to use Nato-supplied missiles to strike targets deeper inside Russia – permission that the US has so far withheld and also blocked the UK’s permission to use its power Storm Shadow missiles.

Heavy fighting along whole front

The situation remains unclear, but according to Russian reports, the AFR forces have launched a series of intensified assaults along the entire frontline, with the most critical confrontations occurring on the Pokrovsk front.

According to an update posted on Facebook by the Ukrainian General Staff at 16:00 on 19 August, there have been 78 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces in one day, reportsUkrayinska Pravda.

Rounding up the action the General Staff reported clashes that include:

The border area of Sumy Oblast has been subjected to "cynical airstrikes" originating from Russian airspace. The settlements of Khotin and Obukhivka were hit by bombardments, while an airstrike involving rockets targeted the settlement of Porozok.

In Kharkiv Oblast, the village of Lyptsi also endured bombardment by Russian aircraft and on the Kharkiv front, Russian forces carried out four unsuccessful attacks near Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

On the Kupiansk front, eight combat engagements were reported as Russian troops attempted to advance towards the settlements of Torske, Hlushkivka, Makiivka, Stelmakhivka, and Kruhliakivka. Currently, half of these attacks remain ongoing, the AFU General staff report. The area near Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi was also struck by Russian guided aerial bombs.

Further south, on the Lyman front, Russian forces launched nine assaults against Ukrainian positions, with the fiercest fighting reported near the settlement of Ploschanka.

On the Siversk front, six engagements occurred as Russian troops attempted to advance near Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, and Ivano-Darivka. "Three more combat engagements are currently underway," according to the General Staff.

The Kramatorsk front saw two Russian assaults near Ivanivske and Andriivka, with fighting ongoing near the latter.

On the Toretsk front, Russian troops launched nine attacks near Nui-York, Toretsk, Zalizne, and Nelipivka, with seven engagements concluded and two more still in progress. Russian forces also conducted six airstrikes, using nine guided aerial bombs, on Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, and Toretsk.

Additionally, three airstrikes involving rockets were launched on Oleksandropil.

Elsewhere, on the Kurakhove front, Russian forces launched five unsuccessful attacks near Nevelske and Kostiantynivka. The Vremivka front saw three rocket strikes near Makarivka, while Russian forces mounted three assaults from Volodymyrivka and Solodke and attacked near Vodiane.

The Prydniprovske and Orikhove fronts were relatively quieter, with no offensive operations reported since the start of the day. However, Russian forces conducted airstrikes with approximately 60 rockets near Piatykhatky, Huliaipole, and Olhivka, and dropped three aerial bombs near Novodanylivka and Temyrivka.

The most intense combat was reported on the Pokrovsk front, where Russian forces attacked near the settlements of Vozdvyzhenka, Novohrodivka, Zelene Pole, Kalynove, Mykolaivka, Ptyche, Mykhailivka, Kamyshivka, and Myroliubivka in coordinated strikes.

"The Ukrainian defence forces are holding back the Russian offensive and have repelled 24 attacks, with 5 engagements still ongoing," the General Staff stated, adding that enemy losses are being confirmed.

All these attacks are taking a heavy toll on the frontline Ukrainian troops. While the elite AFU units in Kursk – including the Nato trained 82nd Airborne Brigade and the 22nd Motorised Brigade using Nato-supplied armoured vehicles – don’t appear to be under pressure, the AFU troops are taking heavy losses.

While there are few if any reporters at the front line, unconfirmed and unverified reports coming in from the Russian military bloggers (milbloggers), who can be very critical of the Kremlin and Russian high command, report significant losses for Ukraine on August 19.

In just one day Russian military forces have reportedly launched a series of successful strikes against Ukrainian air defence systems, significantly reducing the threat to Russian operations in eastern Ukraine, according to information circulating on social media that bne IntelliNews has been unable to verify.

Two US-supplied and hard to replace Patriot missile batteries were destroyed near Dnipro, a substantial blow to Ukraine's defensive capabilities in the region.

Further strikes were reported in Sumy, where another valuable piece of western weaponry, a medium range infrared homing missile IRIS-T system, was destroyed by a Russian Iskander missile. An antiquated SA-3 system was taken out by a powerful Russian glide bomb that Russia has been using to devastating effect since they were introduced a few months ago.

In response, Ukrainian forces have been conducting their own counteroffensive actions. A third bridge on the Seim river was destroyed in the Glushkovo area by a Ukrainian glide bomb or an US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) strike. The bridges make it difficult for the AFR to support or resupply its forces in the region and thus provide some protection for the AFU’s Western flank in Kursk. Russia immediately set up pontoon bridges to maintain their logistical routes, but these were immediately destroyed by Ukrainian shells, according to the latest reports.

Ukraine also reportedly launched a dozen ATACMS missiles at the Kerch Bridge in the Crimea that connects the peninsula to mainland Russia, but all of the missiles were intercepted by Russian air defences, according to Russian state media.

As the fighting intensifies, Russian state media have accused Ukraine of planning attacks on the Kursk and Zaporozhie nuclear power plants using "dirty bombs," a claim Kyiv dismissed out of hand as propaganda.

Pokrovsk remains the key short-term objective and on August 20 the residents were given 2 weeks to evacuate as Russian forces advance, authorities say. An average of 500-600 people have been leaving the city every day, according to city administration head Serhii Dobriak.

Dangerous gamble

As the incursion enters its second week, worries are already surfacing that the exercise, while clearly a PR success, will not bring Ukraine any strategic advantage, as Russia makes use of the same tactics that defeated Napoleon when he invaded Russia in 1812.

Like the AFU, Napoleon’s Grande Armée marched into Russia and was met with little resistance, taking Moscow with ease. The Tsarist General Prince Mikhail Kutuzov avoided a frontal assault on Napoleon’s superior army except for the battle of Borodino on the approaches to Moscow, where nearly a third of the French army was killed or wounded but Kutuzov lost half his men. After that Kutuzov abandoned Moscow, burning all the stores as he left and then simply waited for the cold weather to close in. The French long supply lines made it impossible to resupply or feed the troops. Napoleon was eventually forced to retreat, decimating the Grande Armée in the process.

Putin could be playing the same game, using Russia’s vastness as the best defence against the marauding AFU in Kursk, which is not one of Russia’s richest or most productive regions. And the AFU hasn’t had too many choices for regions to attack. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi considered several scenarios for Russia incursion, the Economist reports, including an attack on the Bryansk Oblast, also on Ukraine’s border to the north, as an alternative to the Kursk incursion.

Ukraine has captured as many as 2,000 Russian soldiers in the Kursk Region, but these are mostly conscripts who are not allowed to fight abroad and were largely used to protect the border.

On the tactical level the Kremlin has been completely outfoxed by the August 6 incursion. But on a strategic level, Zelenskiy has taken a big gamble that could go badly wrong if Russia makes a breakthrough on the Ukrainian frontline – something that neither side has been able to do since the Kharkiv offensive in September 2022. And with Ukraine running out of men, money and materiel a Russian breakthrough in Pokrovsk would be far more consequential than that AFU success.

The big question still hanging over the Kursk incursion that remains unanswered is: what’s the point? What does Bankova hope to achieve? How does the incursion bring Russia any closer to defeat? None of those questions have a satisfactory answer yet.