Ukraine and Moldova have officially begun their long-anticipated negotiations for accession to the European Union in a process that is likely to take years.

"We have surpassed the barrier of promise to delivery," said Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, who led the delegation. "It's a decision that's merit-based," she told the Financial Times, stressing that Ukraine had met all the necessary criteria for the negotiations to commence.

The Moldovan delegation was headed by Prime Minister Dorin Recean. Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib spoke for the EU as Belgium holds the bloc’s main rotating presidency.

“A historical day” was on the lips of nearly all the participants in the first meeting at a ceremony in Luxembourg on June 25 that marks an arduous process of negotiating the admission of the two countries. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola hailed the occasion, declaring: "This is an important moment that strengthens us, that binds us together as one family. Our shared future starts now." Metsola's remarks underscore the historic significance of the talks, which she said "will go down in history."

Notably, Georgia’s bid, which had also been offered candidate status in December, was not part of the process. Georgia’s membership has been thrown into question after the ruling Georgian Dream party recently rammed through a Russian-style so-called foreign agents law that will restrict the freedom of the press and the work of civil society, and which could be used as a weapon against political opponents.

But the mood amongst EU members and the two candidate countries was celebratory. Ukraine lodged its bid to join the bloc in the immediate aftermath of the invasion in February 2022, with Moldova putting in a bid soon afterwards.

“These are truly historic moments. Ukraine is and will always be part of a united Europe,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said when the bloc’s members signed off on starting the talks. ”Millions of Ukrainians, and indeed generations of our people, are realising their European dream.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters, was also ebullient.

“It is very good news that today the European Union opens accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova,” she said in a speech. “We stand at the threshold of a significant and transformative moment for these two countries and for our Union. And we celebrate the values and principles that bind us together. The EU has always been more than a political and economic union. It is a testament to our collective aspiration for peace, for security, for democracy and for prosperity.”

The EU has become the biggest financial donor for Ukraine, having dispersed some €100bn since the war began more than two years ago.

In opening remarks presented via video-link, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal described it as “a historic day” that marks “a new chapter” in his country’s ties with the bloc, particularly as the war with Russia rages on, AP reported.

“We fully understand that there is still much work ahead of us on the path to ascension. We are ready for it. We have demonstrated that we can move swiftly and achieve the impossible,” Shmyhal said.

Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, referred in an email to the commencement of the talks as a “landmark moment for the union’s enlargement policy, which had stagnated for years until Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine catapulted it to the top of the bloc’s agenda.”

The formal initiation of negotiations follows a recent agreement by EU ambassadors, with officials in Kyiv and Brussels pushing for a June start date before Hungary, which has opposed the start of talks, assumes the EU chairmanship from Belgium next month. The European Council reached a preliminary agreement on the framework for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession talks on June 14.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban slated the start of the talks as “politically motivated” and has constantly sought to limit or block EU aid to Ukraine.

"Hungary does not agree with this accession process, but we do not block it and support the start of negotiations," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said a day earlier. "This is not a question of 'yes' or 'no' to EU membership, but we must first examine what the consequences would be if we accepted a country at war whose borders are not defined in practice," he added.

Ukraine was granted EU membership candidate status in June 2022. Subsequently, in November 2023, the European Commission recommended the launch of accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova, a proposal that received the European Council's endorsement the following month. The Commission then presented a negotiation framework, indicating that the two countries were prepared to begin talks by the end of June 2024.

Despite this milestone, full EU membership for Ukraine is still likely to be years away. Katarina Mathernova, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, stated last month that Kyiv could realistically join the bloc by 2030.

“Domestic political and security challenges in candidate countries as well as internal EU decision-making hurdles will take time to overcome,” wrote Balfour. “To maintain a credible enlargement process, the EU will have to exercise strict conditionality while securing support for EU accession from politicians, civil society and the wider population in countries seeking membership."

There is no guarantee that the talks will ultimately lead to EU membership. Turkey and several Western Balkan states have spent years in the accession process. Turkey started its candidate status talks in 1993 and only formally became a candidate for accession in 1999, but it is still waiting for acceptance.

The EU has begun to lay out the conditions for negotiations on 35 subjects – from taxation to environmental policy. While Moldova is a very small country and can easily be subsumed into the EU, Ukraine’s accession is much more problematic as it has a large population of circa 35mn people and is an agricultural powerhouse.

As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine cannot join the EU unless the Common Agricultural Policy is reformed. CAP subsidies and agricultural support accounts for a third of the EU budget spending and as Ukraine has such a large agricultural sector it would be entitled to a massive €186bn subsidy under current rules. If paid out, that would force the entire EU budget to be reworked and countries like Poland and Hungary would go from net beneficiaries of the EU budget to net contributors.

In the meantime, the accession talks are likely to be put on pause in the short term after Hungary takes over the EU presidency for the next six months.