Ukraine will hold seized territory in Russia's Kursk Region for several more months, US intelligence believes.

According to Bloomberg, which reviewed intelligence assessments from the United States, Ukrainian forces now have the necessary manpower and supplies in the region for a significant period.

In early August, Ukraine launched a cross-border offensive, capturing around 100 settlements and over 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. Despite a Russian counteroffensive in September, Ukrainian troops are likely to maintain control over some of the territory gained for several more months, primarily due to strong logistical support. As it stands, approximately 750 square kilometres remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

One crucial factor behind Ukraine’s ability to hold this territory is the steady flow of supplies, particularly ammunition, which had previously been in short supply. Allied nations, including a Czech-led initiative, are delivering between 80,000 and 100,000 artillery rounds each month. This increased support has significantly bolstered Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

Ukraine’s ability to remain in control of Kursk Oblast has also been heightened by Moscow’s decision not to prioritise the region.  Russia’s counteroffensive has regained only a few settlements, with Moscow instead focusing its efforts on capturing more territories in eastern Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the decision to attack Kursk was primarily aimed at forcing the movement of Russian troops away from the front lines, thereby allowing for gradual progress in Ukraine. In addition to diverting Russian forces, Ukraine's seizure of territory in Kursk is viewed as a strategic manoeuvre to enhance its bargaining position in future peace talks. Zelenskiy has also described the operation as a successful boost to Ukraine's "exchange fund" for prisoner swaps, improving the country's ability to negotiate the release of Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.