The United States is ramping up diplomatic efforts to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, with a clear objective of regaining energy dominance on the global stage, said Lawrence Korb, senior adviser to the Bureau of Energy Resources at the US State Department at the Budapest LNG Summit on April 14, gathering over 150 industry leaders and policymakers from 25 countries.

Korb candidly outlined the Trump administration's LNG strategy: expanding into new markets, securing unrestricted access for US suppliers, and strengthening global energy security.

LNG export capacity of the US is projected to more than double by 2030 from 123bn cubic metres in 2023 to 270 bcm, with Europe remaining a priority destination. "Europe has consistently been a top export market for US LNG since 2016. About half of all American LNG exports have gone to Europe, and there's still room for growth," he noted.

He recalled that EU leaders had expressed their willingness to replace Russian gas with US LNG shortly after Donald Trump took office, and high-level discussions on the matter have continued ever since. In tandem with these talks, shipments have steadily grown: in February this year, 70% of US LNG exports were directed to Europe, climbing to nearly 85% by March.

Korb stressed that infrastructure gaps remain a major obstacle to fully realising the continent's energy security goals. "If US LNG imported to France, Spain, Germany or Croatia cannot reach every corner of the continent, or if capacity bookings are too difficult, American exporters miss an opportunity, and European buyers lose access to a reliable and competitively priced product," he warned.

He noted ongoing US diplomatic support for regional infrastructure projects, including flexible floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), the Bosnia-Croatia interconnector and the Greece-North Macedonia pipeline link. "Connecting Greece to Ukraine through a north-south gas corridor is Central Europe's homework," Korb added, urging EU member states to step up their commitment.

He also cited the Krk LNG terminal in Croatia as a key facility during the last crisis. "Projects like these must be completed before the next crisis hits, because by then, it'll be too late. The best insurance against a future crisis is to finish the work now," he said.

Korb pressed European countries to sign long-term contracts with American LNG suppliers to ensure affordable and stable prices for European consumers and industry in the decades to come.

"We want to help the EU meet its energy security goals by encouraging it to sign long-term agreements with American LNG suppliers, locking in these relationships," he said. "The United States is the most reliable energy supplier in the world. Europe needs secure energy to grow its economy."

At the summit, Gergely Szabo, regional chairman of MET Central Europe, challenged conventional thinking on Europe's energy strategy. He proposed that the continent partially index its gas procurement contracts to the US Henry Hub benchmark, a notable departure from its current reliance on the volatile Dutch TTF index.

Szabo argued that Henry Hub's price stability, buyer-driven dynamics, and deep financial market liquidity offer a more resilient foundation for Europe's struggling energy-intensive industries. "This isn't a silver bullet," he noted, "but it's a tool we don't currently use, one that could offer a crucial hedge beyond 2030."

"Anyone who pegged their contract to Henry Hub back in 2019 or 2020 was in a much better position than companies relying on TTF-based agreements. It was simply cheaper and carried less risk," he argued.

The global LNG market is heading towards a new equilibrium, Jefferson Edwards, VP of Shell Energy, told attendees. Despite a record year for global gas demand, 2024 was "a terrible year for LNG", with growth driven mainly by domestic and pipeline supply.

Shell forecasts demand to grow over 3% annually through 2040, making it the fastest-expanding segment of the gas market, as two-thirds of new gas demand will be met by LNG, according to Shell's latest LNG Outlook.

Meanwhile, infrastructure developments across Asia, notably in India and China, are fuelling future demand growth. By 2030, LNG receiving capacity in the region could reach 800mn tonnes, with 180mn new residential and small business customers expected to access gas for the first time.

On the supply side, a surge in new capacity is expected between 2025 and 2028, mainly from North America and Qatar. Edwards warned that rising interest rates and trade tensions are clouding investment decisions. "2025 so far is not an ideal year for final investment decisions [FIDs]," he added.